Fresno State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 11:59 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F7 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Fresno State

3-1 · Power #82

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

3-1 · Power #90

final

Closing spread

FRES -2.5

✓ HAW W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 24–21 HAW

✓ FRES (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -3.5

CloseFRES -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -3.5

1 → HAW

CloseFRES -2.5

1 pt toward Hawai'i

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -3.5 · closed FRES -2.5 · moved 1 toward HAWmodel FRES -1.5

model FRES -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 46% (177 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (77 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -3.5

CloseFRES -2.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 2.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 23–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 3; 44.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	37–42	L	O47
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3	28–7	W	U49
Close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-5	10–7	L	U47
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3	52–14	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0
HAW WLWL	2-2	50%	2-1	0-1

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
HAW UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
HAW	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FRES 0–1 HAW HAW leads · 1 game since 2023 · HAW has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Hawai'i 21 @ Fresno State 20	FRES -12.5	HAW W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.5 →−3.8▲ 0.7#79

HAW−11.4 →−9.0▲ 2.4#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

FRES

Longer bar = better

HAW

#39

Offense

◀ FRES better

#112

#97

Defense

HAW better ▶

#40

−1.3 #125

Turnovers

Even

−1.3 #123

62 plays #116

Pace

HAW faster ▶

73 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #48	20.8 #60	Even
Yards / play	6.35 #47	4.45 #29	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #28	0.00 #43	Even
Success rate	49% #33	35% #27	Even

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #99	19.8 #53	FRES
Yards / play	4.71 #127	5.51 #84	FRES
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.29 #126	Even
Success rate	40% #100	47% #123	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	9.5 #23	9.3 #65	18.8 #45	5.5 #82	11.0 #19	16.5 #40
HAW allowed	5.0 #79	4.0 #25	9.0 #46	6.0 #85	5.8 #70	11.8 #79

HAW scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	4.3 #101	8.5 #74	12.8 #93	2.3 #127	7.3 #64	9.5 #106
FRES allowed	6.8 #96	8.3 #92	15.0 #100	3.3 #36	1.5 #6	4.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.