Illinois @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

2-1 · Power #53

final

Final

Ohio State

2-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -25.5

✓ ILL W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 14–40 OSU

✓ OSU (97%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -27.5

CloseOSU -25.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -27.5

2 → ILL

CloseOSU -25.5

2 pts toward Illinois

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -27.5 · closed OSU -25.5 · moved 2 toward ILLmodel OSU -25

model OSU -25

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 48% (75 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (242 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -27.5

CloseOSU -25.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 25.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 42–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.6 against an average line of 24.7; 47.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND vs MSU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-28.5	27–10	L	U51.5
Close	OSU vs NEB 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-25	21–17	L	U48.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	OSU vs MINN 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	42–3	W	O42.5
Close	TTU vs UCF 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-24.5	48–9	W	O48.5
Close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	31–13	L	U50
Close	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5
Close	MIZ vs TROY 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	27–17	L	U49.5
Close	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	35–14	L	U51
Close	UGA vs SC 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-26.5	24–14	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LLW	1-2	33%	—	—
OSU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
OSU OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 690 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
OSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ILL 0–1 OSU OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Ohio State 34 @ Illinois 16	OSU -15.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL+7.7 →+5.6▼ 2.1#45

OSU+27.1 →+25.4▼ 1.7#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ILL

Longer bar = better

OSU

#25

Offense

Even

#13

#78

Defense

OSU better ▶

#14

0.0 #82

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.7 #41

56 plays #133

Pace

OSU faster ▶

67 plays #60

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #35	10.0 #11	OSU
Yards / play	7.24 #17	3.29 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #40	−0.14 #10	OSU
Success rate	53% #9	34% #29	Even

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #13	21.3 #64	OSU
Yards / play	7.81 #10	5.10 #65	OSU
PPA / play	+0.34 #20	+0.15 #105	OSU
Success rate	53% #8	40% #76	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	12.7 #14	12.7 #36	25.3 #19	3.3 #112	10.3 #22	13.7 #69
OSU allowed	0.0 #1	2.0 #10	2.0 #2	0.0 #1	8.0 #105	8.0 #45

OSU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	15.0 #3	12.7 #36	27.7 #10	8.0 #45	10.3 #22	18.3 #27
ILL allowed	5.7 #94	9.0 #93	14.7 #98	3.3 #43	3.3 #25	6.7 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.