Texas @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas

3-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Final

Tennessee

3-0 · Power #11

final

Closing spread

TEX -5.5

✓ TENN W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 31–26 TENN

✓ TEX (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -7

CloseTEX -5.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -7

1.5 → TENN

CloseTEX -5.5

1.5 pts toward Tennessee

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -7 · closed TEX -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward TENNmodel TEX -3.5

model TEX -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 49% (163 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 67% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -7

CloseTEX -5.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 5.5-point road favorite at TENN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 54.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 4.6; 43.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA @ MIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	27–24	P	O50.5
Close	UGA @ MISS 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-2	10–28	L	U55
Close	CLEM @ SYR 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–14	W	U53
Close	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Close	MIA @ FSU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	28–22	W	U54.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Loose	ALA @ TA&M 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	26–20	W	O45.5
Loose	WASH @ MD 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-5.5	24–20	L	U52.5
Loose	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–7	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX WLL	1-2	33%	—	1-2
TENN LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	—

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; TENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
TENN UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TENN	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+18.4 →+23.1▲ 4.7#6

TENN+14.3 →+17.1▲ 2.8#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TEX

Longer bar = better

TENN

#66

Offense

TENN better ▶

#18

#41

Defense

Even

#28

+0.7 #43

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

0.0 #74

77 plays #7

Pace

◀ TEX faster

69 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	TEX off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #43	14.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #103	4.50 #31	TENN
PPA / play	+0.15 #80	−0.13 #14	TENN
Success rate	48% #37	36% #39	Even

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	47.7 #7	12.0 #17	Even
Yards / play	7.40 #13	4.79 #50	TENN
PPA / play	+0.35 #17	+0.02 #54	TENN
Success rate	49% #35	37% #42	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #50	9.0 #74	17.0 #69	8.0 #45	12.7 #9	20.7 #18
TENN allowed	4.3 #64	0.0 #1	4.3 #8	3.3 #43	6.3 #75	9.7 #64

TENN scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.7 #33	14.7 #22	24.3 #22	14.0 #4	9.3 #31	23.3 #8
TEX allowed	4.3 #64	5.7 #48	10.0 #55	2.0 #22	0.0 #1	2.0 #4

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.