Tulsa @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Arkansas

Weather at kickoff73°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

3-0 · Power #87

final

Final

Arkansas

1-2 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARK -7

✓ ARK W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 23–30 ARK

✓ ARK (70%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARK -8.5

CloseARK -7

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -8.5

1.5 → TLSA

CloseARK -7

1.5 pts toward Tulsa

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -8.5 · closed ARK -7 · moved 1.5 toward TLSAmodel ARK -9

model ARK -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 71%, covered 55% (209 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (362 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARK -8.5

CloseARK -7

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 7-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARK won 34–6; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 5.9; 48.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–17	P	U46.5
Very close	VT vs ODU 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	26–45	L	O50.5
Close	VT vs WAKE 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	23–30	L	O51.5
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	29–19	W	U50.5
Close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-3	30–45	L	O52
Close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Close	HOU vs RICE 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	33–7	W	U44
Close	FSU vs CAL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	14–9	W	U44.5
Close	FRES vs SJSU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	33–10	W	U55
Close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
ARK LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
ARK UUO	1-2	33%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 11. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ARK	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−10.2 →−4.6▲ 5.6#85

ARK+7.3 →+0.8▼ 6.5#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TLSA

Longer bar = better

ARK

#82

Offense

◀ TLSA better

#112

#25

Defense

◀ TLSA better

#124

+1.3 #12

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−1.0 #122

67 plays #64

Pace

ARK faster ▶

74 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: TLSA offense

	TLSA off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #78	34.0 #126	TLSA
Yards / play	5.89 #78	6.26 #120	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.27 #129	TLSA
Success rate	41% #100	46% #119	Even

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: TLSA defense

	ARK off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #125	9.0 #4	TLSA
Yards / play	4.59 #134	4.61 #36	TLSA
PPA / play	+0.02 #116	−0.11 #12	TLSA
Success rate	43% #73	38% #47	TLSA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.3 #115	8.0 #87	11.3 #105	11.3 #12	7.0 #73	18.3 #24
ARK allowed	4.7 #74	12.0 #127	16.7 #113	8.0 #125	9.3 #118	17.3 #123

ARK scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	3.3 #115	3.3 #132	6.7 #132	2.3 #129	10.3 #23	12.7 #78
TLSA allowed	2.3 #27	3.3 #22	5.7 #13	3.3 #44	0.0 #1	3.3 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.