South Florida @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Bowling Green

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

3-0 · Power #76

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

0-3 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

USF -17.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 35–17 BGSU

✓ USF (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -15.5

CloseUSF -17.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -15.5

2 → USF

CloseUSF -17.5

2 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open51.5

▼ 3

Close48.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -15.5 · closed USF -17.5 · moved 2 toward USFmodel USF -20

model USF -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 45% (44 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (320 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSF -15.5

CloseUSF -17.5

Total51.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 17.5-point road favorite at BGSU, the favorite won 8, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 14–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 20 points stayed under 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

1 of 911%

Below normal · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 16.6; 39.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DUKE @ MTSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	45–17	W	O51
Close	TOL @ BALL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	13–6	L	U48
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	27–20	L	U48.5
Close	CCU @ TEM 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	28–20	L	U52
Close	TOL @ WMU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-13	13–14	L	U48.5
Loose	JMU @ GAST 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-19.5	14–7	L	U52.5
Loose	TOL @ MASS 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19	41–24	L	O55.5
Loose	ISU @ OKST 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-14	20–13	L	U46.5
Loose	BOIS @ NEV 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-21	24–3	P	U50.5
Loose	NIU @ BALL 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-13.5	23–25	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
BGSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: USF away, as favorite; BGSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF UOO	2-1	67%	3-0
BGSU UOO	2-1	67%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 43 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BGSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF+8.1 →+1.7▼ 6.4#61

BGSU−12.7 →−18.9▼ 6.2#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USF

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#32

Offense

◀ USF better

#134

#78

Defense

◀ USF better

#135

+1.3 #17

Turnovers

◀ USF better

−1.0 #122

59 plays #122

Pace

Even

56 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #51	43.7 #137	USF
Yards / play	6.71 #38	8.11 #138	USF
PPA / play	+0.30 #31	+0.32 #133	USF
Success rate	53% #7	50% #133	USF

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	BGSU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	9.0 #138	16.7 #36	USF
Yards / play	4.32 #134	5.54 #91	USF
PPA / play	−0.14 #136	+0.06 #70	USF
Success rate	35% #129	45% #113	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

USF scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.0 #48	5.7 #111	13.7 #95	7.0 #57	14.7 #4	21.7 #14
BGSU allowed	14.0 #137	15.0 #133	29.0 #137	3.3 #41	11.3 #133	14.7 #108

BGSU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	2.3 #121	2.3 #136	4.7 #136	1.0 #134	3.3 #123	4.3 #134
USF allowed	2.3 #24	8.0 #86	10.3 #55	1.0 #11	5.3 #60	6.3 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.