Ball State @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-2 · Power #132

final

Final

Kent State

1-2 · Power #131

▲ winner

Closing spread

KENT -2.5

✓ KENT W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 27–29 KENT

✓ KENT (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKENT -4.5

CloseKENT -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKENT -4.5

2 → BALL

CloseKENT -2.5

2 pts toward Ball State

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KENT -4.5 · closed KENT -2.5 · moved 2 toward BALLmodel KENT -1.5

model KENT -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (339 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (132 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKENT -4.5

CloseKENT -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KENT as a 2.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KENT won 26–13; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 2.8; 54.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENT vs MASS 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	42–6	W	U49.5
Close	CMU vs EMU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–13	W	U55.5
Close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Close	ULM vs ARST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	24–34	L	O55.5
Close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Close	NMSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	35–42	L	O51.5
Close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Close	MTSU vs SHSU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–17	W	U53.5
Close	UTEP vs MTSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	13–20	L	U48.5
Close	MTSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-3.5	21–36	L	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2
KENT LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; KENT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
KENT OOO	3-0	100%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
KENT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

BALL 3–0 KENT BALL leads · 3 games since 2023 · BALL has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2025	Kent State 13 @ Ball State 17	BALL -3.5	BALL W
Oct 12 2024	Ball State 37 @ Kent State 35	BALL -3.5	KENT W
Nov 18 2023	Kent State 3 @ Ball State 34	BALL -10.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−17.4 →−20.2▼ 2.8#136

KENT−18.0 →−21.3▼ 3.3#138

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BALL

Longer bar = better

KENT

#118

Offense

◀ BALL better

#132

Defense

Even

#127

+0.3 #57

Turnovers

◀ BALL better

−1.0 #120

61 plays #108

Pace

◀ BALL faster

58 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #121	43.7 #136	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #125	7.04 #131	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #99	+0.14 #102	Even
Success rate	35% #128	51% #137	Even

When KENT has the ball

Even matchup

	KENT off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #135	41.3 #133	Even
Yards / play	4.38 #132	7.30 #134	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #125	+0.35 #135	Even
Success rate	33% #136	48% #127	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	4.7 #93	5.7 #107	10.3 #112	2.7 #122	6.7 #77	9.3 #110
KENT allowed	10.3 #127	16.0 #135	26.3 #134	7.0 #104	10.3 #124	17.3 #123

KENT scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	2.3 #116	2.3 #136	4.7 #134	0.0 #135	8.3 #49	8.3 #123
BALL allowed	9.0 #119	9.0 #93	18.0 #119	9.3 #122	14.0 #137	23.3 #136

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.