Central Michigan @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Miami

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

2-1 · Power #120

final

Final

Miami

3-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -41.5

✓ MIA W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 4–45 MIA

✓ MIA (100%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -42.5

CloseMIA -41.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -42.5

1 → CMU

CloseMIA -41.5

1 pt toward Central Michigan

Total

Open54.5

▼ 2

Close52.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -42.5 · closed MIA -41.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel MIA -43

model MIA -43

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 40.5–42.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 55% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (360 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIA -42.5

CloseMIA -41.5

Total54.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 41.5-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 52–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 40%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 42.1 against an average line of 39.6; 53.3 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PSU vs MASS 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-42	63–0	W	O55
Close	PSU vs BUFF 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-39.5	55–13	W	O48.5
Close	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Close	UGA vs BALL 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-42	45–3	P	U52.5
Close	TTU vs OKST 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-37.5	42–0	W	U56.5
Close	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-41	49–21	L	O56
Close	TENN vs UTEP 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-41.5	56–0	W	O54
Loose	TEX vs MSST 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-37	35–13	L	U58.5
Loose	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Loose	MICH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-40.75	31–6	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
MIA WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
MIA OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 744 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CMU 0–2 MIA MIA leads · 2 games since 2019 · MIA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−10.4 →−14.3▼ 3.9#122

MIA+21.1 →+22.4▲ 1.3#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CMU

Longer bar = better

MIA

#124

Offense

MIA better ▶

#77

Defense

MIA better ▶

#40

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

◀ CMU better

−0.3 #93

59 plays #120

Pace

MIA faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	CMU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #132	11.0 #13	MIA
Yards / play	4.50 #130	4.25 #19	MIA
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.03 #59	MIA
Success rate	38% #118	39% #68	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	51.7 #3	19.3 #55	MIA
Yards / play	8.57 #2	4.86 #55	MIA
PPA / play	+0.54 #3	+0.10 #88	MIA
Success rate	58% #3	44% #108	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	1.0 #132	4.7 #124	5.7 #134	4.3 #99	4.7 #107	9.0 #115
MIA allowed	3.3 #47	1.0 #4	4.3 #7	2.0 #24	4.7 #44	6.7 #25

MIA scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	14.0 #4	19.7 #2	33.7 #1	16.3 #1	1.7 #132	18.0 #25
CMU allowed	2.3 #24	7.7 #78	10.0 #48	6.0 #92	3.3 #21	9.3 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.