Akron @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-3 · Power #133

final

Final

Central Michigan

2-2 · Power #120

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -6.5

✓ CMU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 21–27 CMU

✓ CMU (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCMU -5.5

CloseCMU -6.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCMU -5.5

1 → CMU

CloseCMU -6.5

1 pt toward Central Michigan

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CMU -5.5 · closed CMU -6.5 · moved 1 toward CMUmodel CMU -6

model CMU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 55% (256 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (330 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCMU -5.5

CloseCMU -6.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 6.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 41–17; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 6.2; 53.8 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	21–7	W	U42
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	26–23	L	O47.5
Very close	MTSU vs SHSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	31–17	W	U53.5
Very close	NIU vs KENT 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5	31–35	L	O44.5
Very close	NEV vs HAW 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	14–27	L	U50
Very close	SHSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	27–33	L	O42
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Very close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Very close	HAW vs SHSU 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.25	37–20	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
CMU LLWL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3
CMU UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 639 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CMU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AKR 1–1 CMU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · AKR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Central Michigan 22 @ Akron 28	CMU -6.5	AKR W
Oct 14 2023	Akron 10 @ Central Michigan 17	CMU -10.5	AKR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−15.6 →−17.8▼ 2.2#131

CMU−10.4 →−14.7▼ 4.3#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

AKR

Longer bar = better

CMU

#113

Offense

◀ AKR better

#131

#117

Defense

Even

#113

−1.0 #122

Turnovers

CMU better ▶

−0.5 #98

65 plays #90

Pace

◀ AKR faster

57 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #123	27.5 #105	Even
Yards / play	5.21 #113	5.79 #98	Even
PPA / play	−0.04 #126	+0.20 #116	Even
Success rate	42% #89	48% #131	AKR

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	11.8 #137	31.8 #122	Even
Yards / play	4.18 #137	6.73 #129	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.24 #125	Even
Success rate	36% #129	43% #90	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.5 #109	5.0 #120	8.5 #126	2.5 #124	8.5 #44	11.0 #96
CMU allowed	3.5 #45	12.8 #133	16.3 #113	6.3 #97	5.0 #48	11.3 #81

CMU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	1.5 #131	3.5 #133	5.0 #137	3.3 #118	3.5 #117	6.8 #132
AKR allowed	6.8 #105	11.3 #125	18.0 #121	6.8 #99	7.0 #92	13.8 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.