NCAAF 1st half2026 Week 5: 56 of 56 games final. Favorites went 32-24 against the first-half spread, and halftime totals went 19 over, 35 under.How 1st-half lines work ⓘ
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Thursday, Oct 1
21H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
NMSU -1
✓ NMSU W ATS
1H total
29
▼ Under 26
Projected
14–15
✓ NMSU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UNT -2
✓ TLSA W ATS
1H total
29.5
▼ Under 27
Projected
16–13
✗ UNT did not lead
Friday, Oct 2
31H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
VT -1
✓ VT W ATS
1H total
28
▲ Over 45
Projected
14–14
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
PSU -2
✓ NU W ATS
1H total
24
▲ Over 31
Projected
14–11
✗ PSU did not lead
Saturday, Oct 3
51
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
ND -12.5
✓ UNC W ATS
1H total
24
▲ Over 35
Projected
19–5
✓ ND led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
ALA -3
✓ ALA W ATS
1H total
32.5
▲ Over 45
Projected
19–13
✓ ALA led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
SMU -12.5
✓ BC W ATS
1H total
29
▼ Under 23
Projected
7–19
✓ SMU led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
KU -12.5
✓ KU W ATS
1H total
27
▼ Under 20
Projected
7–21
✓ KU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
ISU -2
✓ ISU W ATS
1H total
28
▲ Over 35
Projected
10–16
✓ ISU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
WAKE -8.5
✓ WAKE W ATS
1H total
28.5
▲ Over 32
Projected
9–17
✓ WAKE led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
WIS -5
✓ WIS W ATS
1H total
22.5
▼ Under 20
Projected
8–14
✓ WIS led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UGA -15
✓ VAN W ATS
1H total
25.5
▲ Over 35
Projected
7–21
✓ UGA led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
WMU -8
✓ BUFF W ATS
1H total
24
Push 24
Projected
16–8
✗ WMU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
TOL -12
✓ BALL W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 25
Projected
20–8
✓ TOL led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
OSU -8.5
✓ OSU W ATS
1H total
24
▼ Under 23
Projected
16–9
✓ OSU led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
UNLV -1
✓ UNLV W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 31
Projected
13–14
✓ UNLV led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
LOU -3
✓ NCSU W ATS
1H total
29.5
▼ Under 20
Projected
16–14
✗ LOU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UVA -1
✓ FSU W ATS
1H total
27
▼ Under 24
Projected
15–13
✗ UVA did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
NDSU -10.5
✓ NDSU W ATS
1H total
23
▼ Under 17
Projected
7–15
✓ NDSU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
CMU -4
✓ CMU W ATS
1H total
24.5
▲ Over 28
Projected
11–14
✓ CMU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
MASS -3
✓ EMU W ATS
1H total
25.5
▼ Under 21
Projected
11–15
✗ MASS did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
OHIO -2
✓ OHIO W ATS
1H total
26.5
▼ Under 13
Projected
16–12
✓ OHIO led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
M-OH -6
✓ BGSU W ATS
1H total
21.5
▼ Under 16
Projected
8–16
✗ M-OH did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
GAST -1
✓ GAST W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 31
Projected
13–13
✓ GAST led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
JMU -8.5
✓ JMU W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 52
Projected
8–20
✓ JMU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UNM -14
✓ UNM W ATS
1H total
24.5
▼ Under 21
Projected
6–21
✓ UNM led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
SC -1.5
✓ SC W ATS
1H total
27.5
▲ Over 30
Projected
12–14
✓ SC led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
ORST -4
✓ ORST W ATS
1H total
31.5
▲ Over 49
Projected
14–15
✗ CSU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
GASO -1.5
✓ GASO W ATS
1H total
28
▼ Under 27
Projected
15–14
✓ GASO led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
USA -7.5
✓ USA W ATS
1H total
30
▲ Over 45
Projected
10–20
✓ USA led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
TTU -8
✓ COLO W ATS
1H total
26.5
▼ Under 10
Projected
16–9
✗ TTU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
USC -4.5
✓ WASH W ATS
1H total
30.5
▼ Under 24
Projected
12–17
✗ USC did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
BOIS -11.5
✓ BOIS W ATS
1H total
26.5
▲ Over 38
Projected
8–19
✓ BOIS led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
USF -3
✓ TEM W ATS
1H total
26.5
▼ Under 13
Projected
11–17
✗ USF did not lead
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
LT -1
✓ LT W ATS
1H total
24
▼ Under 21
Projected
13–12
✗ ARMY did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UL -2.5
✓ ARST W ATS
1H total
25.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
11–16
✗ UL did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
WSU -1.5
✓ FRES W ATS
1H total
23
▼ Under 12
Projected
11–12
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
ASU -2
✓ BAY W ATS
1H total
25.5
▲ Over 37
Projected
12–15
✗ ASU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
TXST -6
✓ TXST W ATS
1H total
30
▼ Under 20
Projected
16–14
✓ TXST led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
ARIZ -4
✓ ARIZ W ATS
1H total
29.5
▼ Under 10
Projected
11–17
✓ ARIZ led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
HAW -1.5
✓ SJSU W ATS
1H total
27
▼ Under 14
Projected
13–14
✗ HAW did not lead
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| Status | Matchup | 1H spread | Move | 1H total | Model | Trend | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
1H ATS: the team's 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line. Away team listed first. Spread edge = the model's 1st-half line minus the 1H spread (Total edge: the model's 1H total minus the 1H total), in points; a lean starts at 2 pts (3 on the total) and is context only. Projections use only games played before that week. Trends use each team's 1st halves earlier this season; dot = backtest status ( proven edge, above break-even but not proven, no edge). est. lines are estimated from the full-game line.
1H ATS leans (backtest)
1117-1157 (49.1%)
No edge 2016–26 · break-even 52.4%
1H O/U leans (backtest)
313-299 (51.1%)
No edge 3+ pt edges
Halftime leader picked
69.7%
7,953 games, walk-forward
This week
32-24 fav 1H ATS
O/U 19-35 · leans 5-7 ATS, 0-1 O/U
2026 team 1st-half records
Against the 1st-half line (real or estimated), halftime over/under and halftime leads
| Team | GP | 1H ATS | Cover % | 1H O-U | Led-trailed | 1H PF | 1H PA | 1H margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon State |
7 | 7-0 | 100% | 4-3 | 5-2 | 24.1 | 9.6 | +14.6 |
 Kansas |
6 | 5-0-1 | 100% | 3-2-1 | 2-3-1 | 17.5 | 10.5 | +7.0 |
 Ohio State |
7 | 6-1 | 85.7% | 4-3 | 7-0 | 24.1 | 5.6 | +18.6 |
 Georgia Southern |
7 | 6-1 | 85.7% | 2-4-1 | 5-2 | 16.0 | 11.0 | +5.0 |
 South Alabama |
7 | 6-1 | 85.7% | 5-2 | 4-2-1 | 21.1 | 14.3 | +6.9 |
 NC State |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 2-4 | 5-1 | 20.2 | 8.5 | +11.7 |
 Utah |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 4-2 | 6-0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | +19.0 |
 Georgia State |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 5-1 | 5-1 | 23.2 | 13.7 | +9.5 |
 Miami |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 4-2 | 5-0-1 | 27.8 | 6.0 | +21.8 |
 Syracuse |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 3-2-1 | 4-2 | 21.7 | 12.2 | +9.5 |
 Baylor |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 3-3 | 4-2 | 16.8 | 7.2 | +9.7 |
 New Mexico |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 1-5 | 4-2 | 18.3 | 4.5 | +13.8 |
 Ole Miss |
6 | 4-1-1 | 80% | 2-4 | 5-1 | 21.7 | 6.0 | +15.7 |
 James Madison |
8 | 6-2 | 75% | 4-4 | 7-1 | 25.1 | 8.8 | +16.4 |
 UNLV |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 2-5 | 5-1-1 | 13.3 | 9.6 | +3.7 |
 Wake Forest |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 5-1-1 | 5-2 | 21.3 | 10.7 | +10.6 |
 Houston |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-4 | 6-1 | 21.1 | 7.3 | +13.9 |
 Nebraska |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 4-3 | 7-0 | 19.3 | 7.0 | +12.3 |
 Ball State |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-4 | 1-5-1 | 9.3 | 18.1 | -8.9 |
 Pittsburgh |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 4-2-1 | 5-2 | 19.7 | 9.9 | +9.9 |
 Kentucky |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 5-2 | 4-2-1 | 16.3 | 13.6 | +2.7 |
 Temple |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-4 | 4-2-1 | 14.1 | 11.3 | +2.9 |
 Penn State |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 4-3 | 5-1-1 | 16.0 | 8.1 | +7.9 |
 Missouri State |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 2-5 | 2-5 | 13.4 | 14.6 | -1.1 |
 Western Michigan |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 1-5-1 | 4-3 | 12.3 | 7.1 | +5.1 |
 Virginia Tech |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 4-3 | 7-0 | 24.4 | 7.7 | +16.7 |
 Florida |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-2-2 | 4-3 | 21.4 | 13.4 | +8.0 |
 Middle Tennessee |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 1-6 | 2-4-1 | 10.9 | 12.1 | -1.3 |
 Florida International |
7 | 4-2-1 | 66.7% | 2-5 | 3-3-1 | 11.0 | 8.3 | +2.7 |
 North Carolina |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 1-3-2 | 4-2 | 14.7 | 9.0 | +5.7 |
 UCF |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 3-3 | 3-2-1 | 17.2 | 11.2 | +6.0 |
 North Texas |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 3-2-1 | 3-2-1 | 23.2 | 16.0 | +7.2 |
 UConn |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 5-1 | 3-2-1 | 20.2 | 13.5 | +6.7 |
 Army |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 2-4 | 4-1-1 | 16.8 | 8.0 | +8.8 |
 South Carolina |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 4-2 | 5-1 | 19.3 | 12.0 | +7.3 |
 Iowa State |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 4-2 | 3-2-1 | 16.7 | 12.7 | +4.0 |
 Texas State |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 4-2 | 4-1-1 | 26.0 | 16.2 | +9.8 |
 Boston College |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 2-4 | 3-3 | 10.5 | 9.2 | +1.3 |
 Duke |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 3-2-1 | 3-3 | 16.7 | 11.5 | +5.2 |
 Troy |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 4-2 | 3-2-1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | +4.2 |
 Louisiana Tech |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 2-4 | 3-2-1 | 17.3 | 8.3 | +9.0 |
 BYU |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 4-2 | 4-1-1 | 21.5 | 7.3 | +14.2 |
 Arizona |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 4-2 | 5-1 | 19.0 | 9.7 | +9.3 |
 UCLA |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 2-4 | 5-0-1 | 14.7 | 7.8 | +6.8 |
 Boise State |
6 | 3-2-1 | 60% | 5-1 | 5-1 | 20.5 | 13.0 | +7.5 |
 Auburn |
6 | 3-2-1 | 60% | 3-3 | 5-1 | 15.3 | 9.2 | +6.2 |
 Florida Atlantic |
6 | 3-2-1 | 60% | 5-1 | 4-2 | 25.5 | 19.0 | +6.5 |
 Nevada |
6 | 3-2-1 | 60% | 2-4 | 2-2-2 | 10.8 | 11.7 | -0.8 |
 North Dakota State |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 3-3-1 | 6-0-1 | 19.0 | 5.9 | +13.1 |
 Florida State |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 1-6 | 3-2-2 | 16.7 | 13.1 | +3.6 |
 Massachusetts |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 4-3 | 5-2 | 16.1 | 8.0 | +8.1 |
 Kennesaw State |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 2-5 | 3-3-1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | -0.6 |
 Alabama |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 5-2 | 5-2 | 23.4 | 13.4 | +10.0 |
 Coastal Carolina |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 3-4 | 4-3 | 15.1 | 12.4 | +2.7 |
 Ohio |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 5-2 | 4-3 | 16.6 | 9.3 | +7.3 |
 Liberty |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 3-4 | 4-3 | 14.9 | 9.6 | +5.3 |
 Miami (OH) |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 5-2 | 4-2-1 | 19.3 | 11.3 | +8.0 |
 Georgia |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 5-2 | 5-2 | 25.4 | 8.1 | +17.3 |
 UTSA |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 4-3 | 4-3 | 17.6 | 15.4 | +2.1 |
 Tulsa |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 2-5 | 5-2 | 13.1 | 10.6 | +2.6 |
 Arkansas State |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 2-5 | 3-3-1 | 15.1 | 13.9 | +1.3 |
 Sam Houston |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 4-3 | 2-4-1 | 12.7 | 11.9 | +0.9 |
 Maryland |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 5-2 | 3-4 | 17.7 | 18.0 | -0.3 |
 LSU |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 4-3 | 5-2 | 19.3 | 8.3 | +11.0 |
 Western Kentucky |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 3-4 | 3-4 | 11.6 | 16.1 | -4.6 |
 Washington State |
7 | 4-3 | 57.1% | 2-5 | 3-3-1 | 10.0 | 12.0 | -2.0 |
 Eastern Michigan |
8 | 4-4 | 50% | 3-4-1 | 3-5 | 11.9 | 14.6 | -2.8 |
 Fresno State |
7 | 3-3-1 | 50% | 5-2 | 2-4-1 | 12.6 | 13.9 | -1.3 |
 West Virginia |
7 | 3-3-1 | 50% | 4-3 | 4-3 | 18.9 | 13.3 | +5.6 |
 Louisiana |
7 | 3-3-1 | 50% | 2-5 | 4-3 | 15.0 | 9.3 | +5.7 |
 Colorado |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 1-5 | 2-4 | 9.8 | 11.8 | -2.0 |
 Minnesota |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 3-3 | 3-3 | 15.3 | 13.2 | +2.2 |
 Air Force |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 2-4 | 3-2-1 | 14.0 | 10.8 | +3.2 |
 Texas |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 2-3-1 | 5-1 | 15.8 | 8.3 | +7.5 |
 Iowa |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 3-3 | 3-2-1 | 20.8 | 6.7 | +14.2 |
 Michigan |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 1-5 | 5-1 | 9.7 | 6.2 | +3.5 |
 Mississippi State |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 4-2 | 3-3 | 19.0 | 15.2 | +3.8 |
 Wisconsin |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 3-3 | 3-3 | 14.7 | 9.3 | +5.3 |
 SMU |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 2-4 | 6-0 | 19.3 | 9.0 | +10.3 |
 San José State |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 0-7 | 5-2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | +0.1 |
 Virginia |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 3-4 | 15.9 | 10.6 | +5.3 |
 Hawai'i |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 1-6 | 2-5 | 6.9 | 12.1 | -5.3 |
 New Mexico State |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 3-4 | 11.9 | 12.9 | -1.0 |
 Delaware |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 4-3 | 4-3 | 13.7 | 16.6 | -2.9 |
 Missouri |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-3-1 | 4-2-1 | 17.3 | 11.3 | +6.0 |
 UAB |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 2-5 | 2-5 | 10.9 | 15.7 | -4.9 |
 Purdue |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-3-1 | 3-4 | 13.9 | 16.6 | -2.7 |
 Michigan State |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-3-1 | 3-4 | 11.0 | 14.6 | -3.6 |
 Toledo |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 4-3 | 4-3 | 17.0 | 11.3 | +5.7 |
 East Carolina |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 4-3 | 15.1 | 12.0 | +3.1 |
 Bowling Green |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 2-5 | 3-3-1 | 8.1 | 15.1 | -7.0 |
 Charlotte |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 1-6 | 1-6 | 6.4 | 19.3 | -12.9 |
 App State |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 3-3-1 | 13.6 | 11.9 | +1.7 |
 Arkansas |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 2-4-1 | 8.1 | 13.6 | -5.4 |
 Wyoming |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 1-6 | 2-5 | 7.4 | 10.6 | -3.1 |
 Rice |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 2-5 | 9.7 | 16.7 | -7.0 |
 San Diego State |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 2-4-1 | 8.3 | 15.3 | -7.0 |
 Notre Dame |
7 | 3-4 | 42.9% | 5-1-1 | 6-1 | 25.0 | 7.9 | +17.1 |
 Southern Miss |
6 | 2-3-1 | 40% | 4-2 | 1-4-1 | 10.5 | 19.7 | -9.2 |
 Northwestern |
6 | 2-3-1 | 40% | 2-4 | 4-2 | 16.0 | 8.8 | +7.2 |
 Arizona State |
6 | 2-3-1 | 40% | 3-2-1 | 3-3 | 18.2 | 17.3 | +0.8 |
 USC |
7 | 2-4-1 | 33.3% | 4-3 | 4-2-1 | 20.4 | 9.7 | +10.7 |
 Indiana |
7 | 2-4-1 | 33.3% | 1-5-1 | 5-2 | 17.7 | 3.7 | +14.0 |
 TCU |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 1-5 | 3-2-1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | +3.8 |
 Rutgers |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 4-2 | 1-5 | 13.7 | 19.5 | -5.8 |
 Georgia Tech |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 3-3 | 4-2 | 13.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 |
 Illinois |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 5-1 | 4-2 | 18.8 | 15.3 | +3.5 |
 Oregon |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 3-3 | 2-4 | 16.5 | 11.3 | +5.2 |
 Cincinnati |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 3-3 | 3-3 | 12.7 | 13.2 | -0.5 |
 Tulane |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 3-3 | 2-3-1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | -0.7 |
 Colorado State |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 5-1 | 2-4 | 20.8 | 28.8 | -8.0 |
 Kansas State |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 3-3 | 5-1 | 18.0 | 11.3 | +6.7 |
 UL Monroe |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 4-2 | 1-4-1 | 10.7 | 23.5 | -12.8 |
 Clemson |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 2-3-1 | 3-3 | 12.5 | 13.2 | -0.7 |
 Jacksonville State |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 5-1-1 | 3-3-1 | 15.7 | 14.6 | +1.1 |
 Akron |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 3-3-1 | 2-5 | 8.9 | 17.6 | -8.7 |
 Buffalo |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 4-2-1 | 3-3-1 | 10.7 | 14.9 | -4.1 |
 Kent State |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 4-3 | 1-6 | 6.1 | 17.1 | -11.0 |
 Marshall |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 2-5 | 3-3-1 | 11.1 | 17.9 | -6.7 |
 Tennessee |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 1-6 | 5-2 | 14.0 | 5.7 | +8.3 |
 Old Dominion |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 4-2-1 | 2-4-1 | 9.6 | 17.9 | -8.3 |
 Texas A&M |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 1-5-1 | 4-2-1 | 14.4 | 6.9 | +7.6 |
 Central Michigan |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 3-4 | 2-5 | 5.9 | 16.7 | -10.9 |
 Washington |
7 | 2-5 | 28.6% | 4-3 | 5-2 | 14.6 | 13.1 | +1.4 |
 Memphis |
8 | 2-6 | 25% | 4-4 | 4-4 | 14.9 | 13.4 | +1.5 |
 Oklahoma State |
6 | 1-4-1 | 20% | 2-4 | 2-3-1 | 15.8 | 12.7 | +3.2 |
 UTEP |
7 | 1-5-1 | 16.7% | 2-4-1 | 1-6 | 6.0 | 16.4 | -10.4 |
 Oklahoma |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 2-3-1 | 3-3 | 8.5 | 11.3 | -2.8 |
 Navy |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 5-1 | 1-5 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 |
 Northern Illinois |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 5-1 | 0-6 | 9.0 | 22.8 | -13.8 |
 Texas Tech |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 3-3 | 4-2 | 18.7 | 9.7 | +9.0 |
 Utah State |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 1-5 | 0-6 | 6.2 | 17.7 | -11.5 |
 Sacramento State |
7 | 1-6 | 14.3% | 6-1 | 1-6 | 7.6 | 20.9 | -13.3 |
 Stanford |
7 | 1-6 | 14.3% | 4-3 | 2-5 | 7.7 | 19.3 | -11.6 |
 Vanderbilt |
7 | 1-6 | 14.3% | 4-3 | 1-5-1 | 10.0 | 19.1 | -9.1 |
 South Florida |
7 | 1-6 | 14.3% | 2-5 | 4-3 | 10.1 | 8.4 | +1.7 |
 California |
7 | 1-6 | 14.3% | 4-3 | 1-6 | 12.4 | 17.9 | -5.4 |
 Louisville |
7 | 0-6-1 | 0% | 4-3 | 2-4-1 | 17.3 | 15.9 | +1.4 |
How it works
Halftime scores come from ESPN quarter scores (Q1 + Q2) for every game since 2015.
1st-half lines. ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime). A real line shows its book; an estimated one is marked “est.”
Projection. The full-game model's margin and total, scaled the same way. The blend was chosen by the lowest walk-forward error.
Spread edge and Total edge. The model’s 1st-half line (total) minus the market’s, in points. A lean starts when the projection beats the 1H line by 2–6 pts (ATS) or 3+ pts (O/U). Shown for context: neither has a proven edge.
Picks and prices. For a game with a posted 1st-half line, tap Pick on its tile to save a 1H spread or total pick (graded on the halftime score; they show in My picks). The game card’s Market tab lists every book’s 1st-half price.
NCAAF first-half betting FAQ
First-half lines, 1H ATS and halftime totals explained
What is a first-half spread in the NCAAF?
A first-half (1H) spread is a point spread graded on the score at halftime only. A team covers the 1st-half spread when its 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line is positive; the 2nd half and overtime don't count.
How are NCAAF first-half lines set here?
ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime).
How is the 1st-half projection made?
The full-game power-rating model's margin and total are scaled to the first half. Every past week is predicted only from games played before it.
Do the 1st-half leans beat the market?
Not so far. Over 2016–26, 1st-half ATS leans went 1117-1157 (49.1%) and over/under leans 313-299 (51.1%), below or near the 52.4% needed to break even at -110 odds, so they are shown as context only.
How often does the model pick the team leading at halftime?
69.7% of 7,953 NCAAF games in the 2016–26 walk-forward backtest.