Florida @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:50 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Florida

4-0 · Power #17

final

Final

Missouri

3-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

FLA -5.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

FLA 31–26 MIZ

✗ FLA (64%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -2.5

CloseFLA -5.5

Total53.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFLA -2.5

3 → FLA

CloseFLA -5.5

3 pts toward Florida

Total

Open53.5

▲ 4

Close57.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FLA -2.5 · closed FLA -5.5 · moved 3 toward FLAmodel FLA -4

model FLA -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 48% (172 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (138 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFLA -2.5

CloseFLA -5.5

Total53.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FLA as a 5.5-point road favorite at MIZ, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 45–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 4.9; 61.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC @ ILL 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	32–34	L	O62.5
Close	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Close	KSU @ CIN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-6	26–31	L	O55.5
Close	MIA @ LOU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	52–45	W	O61
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	UTAH @ BYU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	21–24	L	U49.5
Close	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2	31–24	W	P55
Close	UCLA @ MD 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	54–3	W	O55.5
Close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Close	TA&M @ TEX 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–27	L	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA WLWW	3-1	75%	1-0	3-1
MIZ LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: FLA away, as favorite; MIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0
MIZ OOUU	2-2	50%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 581 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
MIZ	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FLA 0–1 MIZ MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Florida 31 @ Missouri 33	MIZ -12.5	FLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FLA+10.9 →+17.8▲ 6.9#11

MIZ+13.4 →+11.2▼ 2.2#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

FLA

Longer bar = better

MIZ

Offense

◀ FLA better

#60

#65

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#34

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #24

70 plays #37

Pace

◀ FLA faster

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FLA has the ball

Advantage: FLA offense

	FLA off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	53.5 #2	20.8 #50	FLA
Yards / play	7.58 #8	4.72 #38	FLA
PPA / play	+0.43 #4	−0.04 #30	FLA
Success rate	54% #7	34% #19	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	FLA def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #43	22.8 #69	MIZ
Yards / play	6.14 #65	5.02 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #54	+0.01 #48	Even
Success rate	43% #77	43% #92	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FLA scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FLA scored	11.0 #18	19.0 #2	30.0 #3	12.3 #9	11.3 #12	23.5 #4
MIZ allowed	6.0 #100	5.3 #36	11.3 #64	4.3 #61	5.3 #56	9.5 #55

MIZ scoring against the FLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	3.5 #110	18.5 #3	22.0 #26	7.0 #50	6.8 #78	13.8 #70
FLA allowed	1.5 #9	8.5 #91	10.0 #49	7.3 #110	5.5 #65	12.8 #94

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.