Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Fri, Oct 2, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F11 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

4-0 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

Virginia Tech

4-0 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

VT -1.5

✓ PITT W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 26–27 VT

✗ VT (53%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVT -5.5

CloseVT -1.5

Total56.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -5.5

4 → PITT

CloseVT -1.5

4 pts toward Pittsburgh

Total

Open56.5

▼ 3

Close53.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -5.5 · closed VT -1.5 · moved 4 toward PITTmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (214 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (136 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVT -5.5

CloseVT -1.5

Total56.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 1.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 35–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 3.1; 50.2 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5
Close	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	RUTG vs WASH 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.25	21–18	W	U45
Close	TULN vs SMU 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-2.5	14–26	L	U47.5
Close	VAN vs NCSU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-3	35–31	W	O50.5
Close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	33–14	W	O45
Close	UTAH vs UCLA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–7	W	U51
Loose	ISU vs ARIZ 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-4	39–14	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WLWW	3-1	75%	—	—
VT WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: PITT away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OUUU	1-3	25%	4-0
VT OOOU	3-1	75%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 705 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PITT 0–1 VT VT leads · 1 game since 2023 · VT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Pittsburgh 21 @ Virginia Tech 38	PITT -3	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+6.4 →+11.2▲ 4.8#26

VT+1.5 →+8.1▲ 6.6#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

PITT

Longer bar = better

#30

Offense

Even

#37

Defense

◀ PITT better

#46

+0.3 #61

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−0.3 #91

73 plays #16

Pace

Even

78 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #26	16.0 #33	Even
Yards / play	7.22 #15	4.60 #34	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #36	+0.05 #65	PITT
Success rate	46% #44	38% #50	Even

When VT has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	VT off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #14	8.5 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.97 #72	4.18 #14	PITT
PPA / play	+0.27 #33	−0.10 #12	PITT
Success rate	49% #28	30% #3	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	11.3 #17	12.5 #32	23.8 #16	8.8 #31	6.8 #76	15.5 #48
VT allowed	0.8 #5	4.3 #25	5.0 #8	3.5 #45	7.5 #106	11.0 #74

VT scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	11.3 #17	16.0 #10	27.3 #9	8.8 #31	7.3 #71	16.0 #45
PITT allowed	0.0 #1	6.0 #48	6.0 #18	0.0 #1	2.5 #11	2.5 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.