Syracuse @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff68°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

1-2 · Power #70

▲ winner

Final

UConn

2-2 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

SYR -6.5

✓ CONN W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 28–22 CONN

✓ SYR (67%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSYR -6.5

CloseSYR -6.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSYR -6.5

no move

CloseSYR -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 2

Close51.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SYR -6.5 · unchangedmodel SYR -5

model SYR -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 54% (187 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSYR -6.5

CloseSYR -6.5

Total53.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 6.5-point road favorite at CONN, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SYR won 42–41; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 51.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.4 against an average line of 6.2; 61.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Close	ECU @ TEM 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	45–14	W	O58.5
Close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Close	TROY @ TXST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	31–13	W	U53.5
Close	ARMY @ TEM 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-4	21–17	P	U48.5
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	JMU @ TXST 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-7.5	52–20	W	O55.5
Close	TULN @ RICE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-10	30–28	L	O55
Close	NCSU @ WAKE 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	34–24	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
CONN WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: SYR away, as favorite; CONN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OUU	1-2	33%	1-2
CONN OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 787 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
CONN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SYR 2–0 CONN SYR leads · 2 games since 2023 · SYR has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	UConn 20 @ Syracuse 27	SYR -7.5	CONN W
Nov 23 2024	UConn 24 @ Syracuse 31	SYR -9.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−3.6 →+0.7▲ 4.3#65

CONN−4.3 →−6.3▼ 2.0#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

SYR

Longer bar = better

CONN

#97

Offense

CONN better ▶

#57

#33

Defense

◀ SYR better

#63

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #96

79 plays #3

Pace

◀ SYR faster

65 plays #91

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	SYR off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #60	22.3 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.50 #103	5.19 #66	CONN
PPA / play	+0.04 #114	+0.02 #54	CONN
Success rate	40% #109	40% #68	CONN

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	CONN off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #48	17.0 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.55 #40	4.31 #19	SYR
PPA / play	+0.21 #53	−0.05 #23	SYR
Success rate	42% #86	39% #55	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	5.7 #86	15.3 #11	21.0 #35	2.7 #124	8.7 #42	11.3 #96
CONN allowed	2.5 #26	6.8 #57	9.3 #39	7.0 #101	6.0 #73	13.0 #99

CONN scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	14.0 #4	6.8 #102	20.8 #36	10.5 #15	3.5 #116	14.0 #67
SYR allowed	2.3 #25	5.7 #41	8.0 #28	4.7 #70	4.3 #43	9.0 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.