Syracuse @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Thu, Sep 17, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F4 mphgusts 16Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Syracuse

1-1 · Power #70

final

Final

Pittsburgh

2-0 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -10.5

✓ PITT W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

SYR 19–31 PITT

✓ PITT (79%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -10.5

ClosePITT -10.5

Total59.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -10.5

no move

ClosePITT -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 8

Close51.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -10.5 · unchangedmodel PITT -14.5

model PITT -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 44% (156 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPITT -10.5

ClosePITT -10.5

Total59.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like PITT as a 10.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 27–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 9 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 9.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 8.9; 55.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	IU vs MD 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	42–28	W	O49.5
Loose	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · loose	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Loose	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Loose	FSU vs PITT 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar spread & season form	-10.5	31–34	L	O57
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Loose	LSU vs FLA 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-5	20–10	W	U47.5
Loose	MIA vs LOU 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	21–24	L	U49.5
Loose	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & rest	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Loose	UTSA vs RICE 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-13.5	34–14	W	U54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR WL	1-1	50%	—	—
PITT WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR OU	1-1	50%	1-1
PITT OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
PITT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

SYR 1–2 PITT PITT leads · 3 games since 2023 · PITT has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Pittsburgh 30 @ Syracuse 13	PITT -8.5	PITT W
Oct 24 2024	Syracuse 13 @ Pittsburgh 41	PITT -4.5	PITT W
Nov 11 2023	Pittsburgh 13 @ Syracuse 28	PITT -3.5	SYR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−3.6 →−0.6▲ 3.0#66

PITT+6.4 →+10.2▲ 3.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SYR

Longer bar = better

PITT

#73

Offense

Even

#65

#20

Defense

Even

#26

0.0 #80

Turnovers

PITT better ▶

+0.5 #60

83 plays #5

Pace

◀ SYR faster

74 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	SYR off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #30	10.5 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #83	4.46 #43	PITT
PPA / play	+0.11 #90	−0.11 #31	PITT
Success rate	42% #90	28% #13	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: SYR defense

	PITT off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #53	12.0 #26	SYR
Yards / play	6.54 #49	3.40 #7	SYR
PPA / play	+0.17 #65	−0.18 #14	SYR
Success rate	42% #91	33% #33	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 10 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	8.5	18.0	26.5	4.0	11.5	15.5
PITT allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	0.0	3.5	3.5

PITT scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	12.0	9.5	21.5	10.5	3.5	14.0
SYR allowed	0.0	3.5	3.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.