Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Syracuse · Conference game
Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›
0-1 · Power #85
21
▲ winner
Final
@
1-0 · Power #70
18
final
Closing spread
SYR -4
✓ CAL W
Total
56.5
▼ Under · 39 pts
Model before kickoff
CAL 24–29 SYR
✗ SYR (64%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCAL -1.5
CloseSYR -4
Total52.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
5.5 pts toward Syracuse
Total
Up 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CAL -1.5 · closed SYR -4 · moved 5.5 toward SYRmodel SYR -8.5
Opened 52.5 · closed 56.5 · moved 4 upmodel 54
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (214 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCAL -1.5
CloseSYR -4
Total52.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for SYR as a 4-point home favorite against CAL. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Syracuse ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Syracuse
5.5 pts (CAL -1.5 → SYR -4). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 4
52.5 → 56.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
California has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CAL−0.3 →−3.8▼ 3.5#80
SYR−3.6 →+0.1▲ 3.7#66
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CAL
Longer bar = better
SYR
#108
Offense
SYR better ▶
#23
#128
Defense
SYR better ▶
#18
−2.0 #124
Turnovers
SYR better ▶
+3.0 #10
87 plays #5
Pace
◀ CAL faster
78 plays #25
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When CAL has the ball
Advantage: SYR defense
CAL offSYR defEdge
Points / game 24.0 #88 3.0 #13 SYR
Yards / play 4.71 #108 2.65 #11 SYR
PPA / play −0.06 #115 −0.34 #15 SYR
Success rate 34% #119 28% #33 SYR
When SYR has the ball
Advantage: SYR offense
SYR offCAL defEdge
Points / game 66.0 #8 45.0 #124 SYR
Yards / play 6.59 #57 8.54 #133 SYR
PPA / play +0.62 #12 +0.41 #124 SYR
Success rate 62% #13 57% #132 SYR

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
SYR +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
CAL7d
SYR7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 165 plays
slowavg 135fast
Travel
CAL 2,420 mi
3 time zones

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week