Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Syracuse · Conference game
Closing spread
SYR -4
✓ CAL W
Total
56.5
▼ Under · 39 pts
Model before kickoff
CAL 24–29 SYR
✗ SYR (64%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCAL -1.5
CloseSYR -4
Total52.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCAL -1.5
5.5 → SYR
CloseSYR -4
5.5 pts toward Syracuse
Total
Open52.5
▲ 4
Close56.5
Up 4 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CAL -1.5 · closed SYR -4 · moved 5.5 toward SYRmodel SYR -8.5
model SYR -8.5
Opened 52.5 · closed 56.5 · moved 4 upmodel 54
model 54
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (214 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenCAL -1.5
CloseSYR -4
Total52.5 → 56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
SYR as a 4-point home favorite against CAL. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Syracuse ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Syracuse
5.5 pts (CAL -1.5 → SYR -4). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 4
52.5 → 56.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
California has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | |
| 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
CAL 2–2 SYR
Series tied · 4 games since 1967 · CAL has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16 2024 | Syracuse 33 @ California 25 | CAL -10.5 | SYR W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CAL−0.3 →−3.8▼ 3.5#80
SYR−3.6 →+0.1▲ 3.7#66
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#108
Offense
SYR better ▶#23
#128
Defense
SYR better ▶#18
−2.0 #124
Turnovers
SYR better ▶+3.0 #10
87 plays #5
Pace
◀ CAL faster78 plays #25
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| CAL off | SYR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.0 #88 | 3.0 #13 | SYR |
| Yards / play | 4.71 #108 | 2.65 #11 | SYR |
| PPA / play | −0.06 #115 | −0.34 #15 | SYR |
| Success rate | 34% #119 | 28% #33 | SYR |
| SYR off | CAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 66.0 #8 | 45.0 #124 | SYR |
| Yards / play | 6.59 #57 | 8.54 #133 | SYR |
| PPA / play | +0.62 #12 | +0.41 #124 | SYR |
| Success rate | 62% #13 | 57% #132 | SYR |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
CAL7d
SYR7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 165 plays
slowavg 135fast
Travel
CAL 2,420 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

