Duke @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Illinois

Weather at kickoff90°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Duke

1-0 · Power #43

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

1-0 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

ILL -6

✓ DUKE W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

DUKE 24–30 ILL

✗ ILL (66%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -8.5

CloseILL -6

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -8.5

2.5 → DUKE

CloseILL -6

2.5 pts toward Duke

Total

Open56.5

▼ 5

Close51.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -8.5 · closed ILL -6 · moved 2.5 toward DUKEmodel ILL -4.5

model ILL -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (165 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 56% (102 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -8.5

CloseILL -6

Total56.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 6-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 31–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.6 against an average line of 4.7; 60.8 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	PITT vs NCSU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-5	53–34	W	O52.5
Close	AUB vs ARK 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	14–24	L	U53.5
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	MIZ vs ARK 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-3	28–21	W	U51
Close	MEM vs TULN 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	32–38	L	O53.5
Close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & rest	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-6	37–30	W	O47
Close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE W	1-0	100%	—	—
ILL L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE U	0-1	0%	1-0
ILL O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 723 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ILL	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DUKE 2–2 ILL Series tied · 4 games since 1958 · DUKE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 6 2025	Illinois 45 @ Duke 19	ILL -2.5	ILL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+3.8 →+5.3▲ 1.5#40

ILL+7.7 →+6.4▼ 1.3#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

DUKE

Longer bar = better

ILL

#116

Offense

ILL better ▶

#34

#43

Defense

◀ DUKE better

#90

0.0 #86

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+1.0 #57

77 plays #27

Pace

◀ DUKE faster

43 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: ILL defense

	DUKE off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #106	23.0 #94	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #104	5.23 #81	ILL
PPA / play	−0.13 #125	+0.11 #97	ILL
Success rate	29% #128	41% #89	ILL

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #44	3.0 #19	DUKE
Yards / play	7.72 #32	4.61 #62	ILL
PPA / play	+0.46 #31	−0.13 #44	Even
Success rate	57% #27	31% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.