Mississippi State @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Minnesota

Weather at kickoff74°F11 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

1-0 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota

1-0 · Power #65

final

Closing spread

MSST -1.5

✓ MSST W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 28–26 MINN

✓ MSST (55%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -2.5

CloseMSST -1.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -2.5

4 → MSST

CloseMSST -1.5

4 pts toward Mississippi State

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -2.5 · closed MSST -1.5 · moved 4 toward MSSTmodel MSST -3

model MSST -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 49% (173 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -2.5

CloseMSST -1.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like MSST as a 1.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 38–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 51 points stayed under 53.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 2.8; 48.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UNC @ MINN 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	19–17	W	U52.5
Loose	UCLA @ CAL 2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & spread	-2.5	45–24	W	O53.5
Loose	KU @ ILL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	17–23	L	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
MINN W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: MSST away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST O	1-0	100%	1-0
MINN O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
MINN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+5.6 →+8.7▲ 3.1#33

MINN+1.1 →+3.3▲ 2.2#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MSST

Longer bar = better

MINN

#11

Offense

Even

#24

#39

Defense

MINN better ▶

#13

0.0 #76

Turnovers

◀ MSST better

−1.0 #96

79 plays #19

Pace

◀ MSST faster

71 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	62.0 #12	7.0 #27	Even
Yards / play	9.65 #3	2.56 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.65 #9	−0.42 #8	Even
Success rate	60% #19	13% #7	Even

When MINN has the ball

Even matchup

	MINN off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	59.0 #15	13.0 #53	MINN
Yards / play	6.97 #46	4.09 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.51 #23	−0.28 #26	Even
Success rate	63% #12	24% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.