Alabama @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Alabama

1-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

1-0 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

ALA -9.5

✓ ALA W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 30–19 UK

✓ ALA (78%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -10.5

CloseALA -9.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -10.5

1 → UK

CloseALA -9.5

1 pt toward Kentucky

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -10.5 · closed ALA -9.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel ALA -17

model ALA -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (92 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (336 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -10.5

CloseALA -9.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 9.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.8 against an average line of 8.7; 50.4 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	27–3	W	U53
Loose	OSU @ WASH 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & season form	-9.5	24–6	W	U52.5
Loose	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Loose	MISS @ UK 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.75	30–23	L	O51.5
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Loose	BYU @ ECU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-6.5	34–13	W	U49.5
Loose	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Loose	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-10	39–38	L	O54
Loose	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Loose	MEM @ NAVY 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread	-8.5	44–56	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
UK W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA O	1-0	100%	1-0
UK U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 586 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	3-7 30%
UK	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ALA 1–0 UK ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Alabama 49 @ Kentucky 21	ALA -11.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.3 →+23.1▲ 2.8#4

UK+5.5 →+4.6▼ 0.9#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

ALA

Longer bar = better

#47

Offense

UK better ▶

#21

#37

Defense

◀ ALA better

#81

0.0 #82

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+1.0 #41

81 plays #13

Pace

◀ ALA faster

61 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #35	13.0 #52	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #72	4.62 #63	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #44	+0.13 #99	ALA
Success rate	54% #35	46% #111	ALA

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #38	10.0 #42	Even
Yards / play	8.30 #22	3.95 #45	UK
PPA / play	+0.60 #16	−0.17 #37	UK
Success rate	65% #8	24% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.