Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Vanderbilt
Weather at kickoff89°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #113
26
final
Final
@
1-0 · Power #60
35
▲ winner
Closing spread
VAN -20.5
✓ DEL W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
DEL 21–43 VAN
✓ VAN (94%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenVAN -21.5
CloseVAN -20.5
Total55.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close
Spread
1 pt toward Delaware
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VAN -21.5 · closed VAN -20.5 · moved 1 toward DELmodel VAN -28
Opened 55.5 · closed 54.5 · moved 1 downmodel 64
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (340 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenVAN -21.5
CloseVAN -20.5
Total55.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like VAN as a 20.5-point home favorite against DEL, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up to
games
This game: VAN won 35–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 61 points went over 54.5, as in 1 of 4.
Favorite won
4 of 4100%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
1 of 425%
Normal range · usually 51%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 28.8 against an average line of 23.3; 45.8 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Loose
2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest
-24.538–20 L O50
Loose
2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread
-21.539–0 W U51.5
Loose
2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total
-23.527–14 L U53.5
Loose
2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total
-23.545–0 W U53.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Delaware has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Loading play-by-play…

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
DEL−14.3 →−10.1▲ 4.2#109
VAN+13.0 →+12.3▼ 0.7#25
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

DEL
Longer bar = better
VAN
#32
Offense
◀ DEL better
#69
#26
Defense
◀ DEL better
#49
+1.0 #61
Turnovers
Even
0.0 #67
73 plays #43
Pace
◀ DEL faster
63 plays #94
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When DEL has the ball
Even matchup
DEL offVAN defEdge
Points / game 42.0 #45 9.0 #35 Even
Yards / play 7.49 #36 3.87 #43 Even
PPA / play +0.60 #14 −0.03 #62 DEL
Success rate 55% #31 34% #56 DEL
When VAN has the ball
Advantage: DEL defense
VAN offDEL defEdge
Points / game 28.0 #80 7.0 #34 DEL
Yards / play 6.27 #66 3.49 #29 DEL
PPA / play +0.26 #64 −0.31 #22 DEL
Success rate 48% #65 20% #20 DEL

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
VAN +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
89° · 5 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
DEL9d
VAN7d
DEL +2 days
Tempo
Average 136 plays
slowavg 135fast
Quarterback
VAN backup QB started
Not the usual starter

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week