Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Vanderbilt
Closing spread
VAN -20.5
✓ DEL W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
DEL 21–43 VAN
✓ VAN (94%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenVAN -21.5
CloseVAN -20.5
Total55.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVAN -21.5
1 → DEL
CloseVAN -20.5
1 pt toward Delaware
Total
Open55.5
▼ 1
Close54.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VAN -21.5 · closed VAN -20.5 · moved 1 toward DELmodel VAN -28
model VAN -28
Opened 55.5 · closed 54.5 · moved 1 downmodel 64
model 64
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 50% (105 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (340 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenVAN -21.5
CloseVAN -20.5
Total55.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 4 games most like
VAN as a 20.5-point home favorite against DEL, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.
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This game: VAN won 35–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 61 points went over 54.5, as in 1 of 4.
Favorite won
4 of 4100%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
1 of 425%
Normal range · usually 51%
Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 28.8 against an average line of 23.3; 45.8 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 4 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest |
-24.5 | 38–20 | L | O50 |
| Loose |
2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-21.5 | 39–0 | W | U51.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total |
-23.5 | 27–14 | L | U53.5 |
| Loose |
2026 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total |
-23.5 | 45–0 | W | U53.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Delaware has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 640 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | |
| 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
DEL−14.3 →−10.1▲ 4.2#109
VAN+13.0 →+12.3▼ 0.7#25
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#32
Offense
◀ DEL better#69
#26
Defense
◀ DEL better#49
+1.0 #61
Turnovers
Even0.0 #67
73 plays #43
Pace
◀ DEL faster63 plays #94
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| DEL off | VAN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 42.0 #45 | 9.0 #35 | Even |
| Yards / play | 7.49 #36 | 3.87 #43 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.60 #14 | −0.03 #62 | DEL |
| Success rate | 55% #31 | 34% #56 | DEL |
| VAN off | DEL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 28.0 #80 | 7.0 #34 | DEL |
| Yards / play | 6.27 #66 | 3.49 #29 | DEL |
| PPA / play | +0.26 #64 | −0.31 #22 | DEL |
| Success rate | 48% #65 | 20% #20 | DEL |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
89° · 5 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
DEL9d
VAN7d
DEL +2 days
Tempo
Average 136 plays
slowavg 135fast
Quarterback
VAN backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

