Fri, Sep 4, 2026, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at USC
Closing spread
USC -21.5
✓ USC W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 39 pts
Model before kickoff
FRES 14–37 USC
✓ USC (95%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUSC -23.5
CloseUSC -21.5
Total51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSC -23.5
2 → FRES
CloseUSC -21.5
2 pts toward Fresno State
Total
Open51.5
no move
Close51.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USC -23.5 · closed USC -21.5 · moved 2 toward FRESmodel USC -26
model USC -26
Opened 51.5 · unchangedmodel 50.5
model 50.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 46% (85 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (218 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUSC -23.5
CloseUSC -21.5
Total51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
USC as a 21.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: USC won 39–0; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
3 of 933%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 47%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.3 against an average line of 21.5; 58.1 points a game (usually 54). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-22.5 | 31–10 | L | U53 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest |
-24.5 | 56–30 | W | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total |
-20 | 50–20 | W | O48.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total |
-21.5 | 35–14 | L | U51 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-20.5 | 21–22 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total |
-18 | 30–27 | L | O52 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total |
-19.5 | 35–14 | W | P49 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread |
-20 | 48–31 | L | O57.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total |
-24.5 | 45–24 | L | O52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation |
-24 | 31–7 | P | U44 |
ORE
MSU
ND
PUR
OU
ISU
UVA
PSU
NU
MIZ
VAN
UGA
UK
CLEM
GT
TEM
MICH
RUTGHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Fresno State ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Fresno State
2 pts (USC -23.5 → USC -21.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Fresno State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 FRES | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| USC | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
USC +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 8 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
FRES1st game
USC6d
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
SJSU @ 
MASS @ 
UAB @ 
ILL
TOL @ 
UNT @ 
IU
ORST @ 
HOU
OHIO @ 
NEB
BALL @ 
OSU
BOIS @ 
TXST @ 
TEX