Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 12:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Ohio State
Closing spread
OSU -50.5
✓ OSU W
Total
55.5
▲ Over · 59 pts
Model before kickoff
BALL 0–48 OSU
✓ OSU (100%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenOSU -49.5
CloseOSU -50.5
Total56.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOSU -49.5
1 → OSU
CloseOSU -50.5
1 pt toward Ohio State
Total
Open56.5
▼ 1
Close55.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OSU -49.5 · closed OSU -50.5 · moved 1 toward OSUmodel OSU -51.5
model OSU -51.5
Opened 56.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 1 downmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (283 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenOSU -49.5
CloseOSU -50.5
Total56.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 7 games most like 
OSU as a 50.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: OSU won 56–3; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 7 similar games. 59 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 7.
Favorite won
7 of 7100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
2 of 633%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
4 of 757%
Below normal · usually 100%
Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 46.4 against an average line of 45.4; 57.6 points a game (usually 68.3). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 7 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-49.5 | 52–6 | L | O56 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation |
-49.5 | 71–0 | W | O62.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar total |
-46.5 | 44–0 | L | U53.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation |
-43.5 | 51–3 | W | O53.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation |
-44.5 | 42–6 | L | U57 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & team ratings |
-42.5 | 59–21 | L | O55.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total |
-42 | 45–3 | P | U52.5 |
AKR
TENN
KENT
OU
TEX
ULM
MIZ
MASS
UGAHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Ball State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 569 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 BALL | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| OSU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
OSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
79° · 4 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BALL1st game
OSU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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