San José State @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Fri, Sep 4, 2026, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Eastern Michigan

Weather at kickoff75°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

San José State

0-1 · Power #111

▲ winner

Final

Eastern Michigan

1-0 · Power #128

final

Closing spread

EMU -1.5

✓ SJSU W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 29–31 EMU

✗ EMU (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenEMU -3.5

CloseEMU -1.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -3.5

2 → SJSU

CloseEMU -1.5

2 pts toward San José State

Total

Open53.5

▲ 1

Close54.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -3.5 · closed EMU -1.5 · moved 2 toward SJSUmodel EMU -2

model EMU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 49% (202 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (122 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenEMU -3.5

CloseEMU -1.5

Total53.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 1.5-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SJSU won 27–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 2.2; 59 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FIU vs FAU 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total	-2	38–28	W	O56.5
Very close	ULM vs ARST 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	28–16	W	U55.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	24–13	W	U55.5
Very close	SJSU vs UNM 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	35–28	W	O58.5
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	30–45	L	O52
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	GASO vs JXST 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	41–34	W	O58.5
Very close	CLT vs UAB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	29–27	W	U60
Very close	EMU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	20–37	L	O53.5
Very close	LT vs TLSA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–23	L	U56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
EMU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; EMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU O	1-0	100%	0-1
EMU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSU	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
EMU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 24 FBS teams

SJSU

Longer bar = better

EMU

#14

Offense

Even

#14

#23

Defense

EMU better ▶

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

+1.0 #6

56 plays #22

Pace

EMU faster ▶

68 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: EMU defense

	SJSU off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #14	17.0 #9	EMU
Yards / play	6.00 #11	4.25 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #13	−0.12 #6	EMU
Success rate	38% #17	34% #10	EMU

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: EMU offense

	EMU off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #11	42.0 #24	EMU
Yards / play	5.12 #16	6.64 #21	EMU
PPA / play	+0.06 #15	+0.40 #23	EMU
Success rate	41% #13	67% #24	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.