Thu, Sep 3, 2026, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Rutgers
Closing spread
RUTG -29.5
✓ MASS W
Total
55.5
▲ Over · 58 pts
Model before kickoff
MASS 15–45 RUTG
✗ RUTG (98%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenRUTG -30.5
CloseRUTG -29.5
Total55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenRUTG -30.5
1 → MASS
CloseRUTG -29.5
1 pt toward Massachusetts
Total
Open55.5
no move
Close55.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened RUTG -30.5 · closed RUTG -29.5 · moved 1 toward MASSmodel RUTG -33
model RUTG -33
Opened 55.5 · unchangedmodel 60
model 60
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 28.5–30.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 54% (61 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (324 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenRUTG -30.5
CloseRUTG -29.5
Total55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
RUTG as a 29.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: MASS won 37–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 55.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 96%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 33.4 against an average line of 27.5; 57.6 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread |
-28 | 48–22 | L | O56.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread |
-28 | 54–26 | P | O54.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total |
-27.5 | 58–3 | W | O56.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 14 · close · similar total |
-31 | 27–0 | L | U52.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread |
-27.5 | 38–0 | W | U50.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-24 | 32–15 | L | U54 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 11 · close |
-25.5 | 52–6 | W | O50.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation |
-27.5 | 24–14 | L | U57.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total |
-27.5 | 70–21 | W | O53.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-28.5 | 52–14 | W | O50.5 |
ECU
CLT
USF
TXST
USM
TULN
ILL
WMU
JMU
TEM
VAN
BALL
GAST
IUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Massachusetts have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 557 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 MASS | 0-10 0% | 3-7 30% | 7-3 70% |
| RUTG | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
RUTG +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
85° · 5 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
MASS1st game
RUTG1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Massachusettsvs SHU →
SJSU @ 
USC
SAC @ 
EMU
AKR @ 
WAKE
UAB @ 
TOL @ 
MSU
FRES @ 
UNT @ 
OHIO @ 
NEB
OSU