Sat, Sep 5, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Indiana
Closing spread
IU -39.5
✓ UNT W
Total
57.5
▲ Over · 68 pts
Model before kickoff
UNT 14–50 IU
✓ IU (100%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenIU -40.5
CloseIU -39.5
Total55.5 → 57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIU -40.5
1 → UNT
CloseIU -39.5
1 pt toward North Texas
Total
Open55.5
▲ 2
Close57.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IU -40.5 · closed IU -39.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel IU -24
model IU -24
Opened 55.5 · closed 57.5 · moved 2 upmodel 63.5
model 63.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 37.5–41.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 56% (68 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (326 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenIU -40.5
CloseIU -39.5
Total55.5 → 57.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 4 games most like 
IU as a 39.5-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 4, covered 0, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: IU won 52–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 4 similar games. 68 points went over 57.5, as in 2 of 4.
Favorite won
4 of 4100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
0 of 40%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
2 of 450%
Normal range · usually 45%
Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 26.3 against an average line of 35.6; 55.3 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 4 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar situation |
-35.5 | 30–3 | L | U52 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 7 · loose |
-34 | 41–31 | L | O53.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & situation |
-39 | 49–14 | L | O55.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation |
-34 | 43–10 | L | U66.5 |
MICH
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MRSH
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TLSAHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 2
55.5 → 57.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
North Texas have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 498 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 UNT | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
| IU | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
IU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
87° · 8 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UNT1st game
IU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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