Toledo @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 1, 2026)

Fri, Sep 4, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Michigan State

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Toledo

0-0 · Power #75

final

Final

Michigan State

0-0 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSU -10

Push

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 21–29 MSU

✓ MSU (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSU -10.5

CloseMSU -10

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSU -10.5

0.5 → TOL

CloseMSU -10

0.5 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSU -10.5 · closed MSU -10 · moved 0.5 toward TOLmodel MSU -2.5

model MSU -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 77%, covered 42% (133 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMSU -10.5

CloseMSU -10

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSU as a 10-point home favorite against TOL, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MSU won 30–20; the favorite pushed, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 8.4; 55.9 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs JMU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11	50–70	L	O48.5
Very close	OKST vs CIN 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-7.5	45–13	W	O53
Very close	NCSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	24–17	P	U46.5
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings	-7	26–19	P	U53.5
Very close	CIN vs UCF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread	-10.5	20–11	L	U55.5
Very close	MSU vs FAU 2024 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total	-12	16–10	L	U45
Close	NEB vs ILL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-9	24–31	L	O42
Close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & total	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75
Close	PITT vs CIN 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-6.5	21–27	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found