Fri, Sep 4, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Oklahoma
Closing spread
OU -40.5
✓ OU W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 51 pts
Model before kickoff
UTEP 1–41 OU
✓ OU (100%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenOU -40.5
CloseOU -40.5
Total50.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenOU -40.5
no move
CloseOU -40.5
No change since the open
Total
Open50.5
▲ 1
Close51.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened OU -40.5 · unchangedmodel OU -37.5
model OU -37.5
Opened 50.5 · closed 51.5 · moved 1 upmodel 41.5
model 41.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 38.5–42.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 53% (60 games)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenOU -40.5
CloseOU -40.5
Total50.5 → 51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
OU as a 40.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: OU won 51–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 100%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 37.4 against an average line of 39.7; 50.6 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-40.75 | 31–6 | L | U53.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & total |
-39.5 | 55–0 | W | O51.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-41.75 | 34–0 | L | U53.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-38 | 52–10 | W | O48.75 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation |
-39.5 | 27–10 | L | U52.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation |
-36.75 | 38–7 | L | U52.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread |
-42.75 | 42–3 | L | U52.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation |
-35.5 | 56–9 | W | O51.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation |
-41 | 49–21 | L | O56 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total |
-41.5 | 56–0 | W | O54 |
MICH
BGSU
TEX
SHSU
PSU
FIU
TA&M
UNM
SJSU
AUB
BALL
IU
KENN
UGA
UAB
TENNHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
UTEP have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 UTEP | 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% |
| OU | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
OU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
97° · 11 mph
gusts 15 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
UTEP1st game
OU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
USC
JXST @ 
NDSU
HAW @ 
STAN
MEM @ 
UNLV
EMU
ECU @ 
ALA
KENT @ 
SC
TXST @ 
BAY vs 
NIU @ 
IOWA