Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Michigan
Weather at kickoff73°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›
1-0 · Power #22
10
final
Final
@
1-0 · Power #34
17
▲ winner
Closing spread
OU -5.5
✓ MICH W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 27 pts
Model before kickoff
OU 25–21 MICH
✗ OU (63%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMICH -2.5
CloseOU -5.5
Total45.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
8 pts toward Oklahoma
Total
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -2.5 · closed OU -5.5 · moved 8 toward OUmodel OU -1.5
Opened 45.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 2 downmodel 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (159 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMICH -2.5
CloseOU -5.5
Total45.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for OU as a 5.5-point road favorite at MICH. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Oklahoma ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Oklahoma
8 pts (MICH -2.5 → OU -5.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
45.5 → 43.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Oklahoma has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
OU+15.2 →+16.6▲ 1.4#15
MICH+14.6 →+12.5▼ 2.1#23
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

OU
Longer bar = better
MICH
#33
Offense
◀ OU better
#89
#28
Defense
◀ OU better
#45
+1.0 #39
Turnovers
◀ OU better
−3.0 #133
58 plays #109
Pace
◀ OU faster
48 plays #129
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When OU has the ball
Even matchup
OU offMICH defEdge
Points / game 51.0 #28 12.0 #47 Even
Yards / play 6.91 #47 3.30 #25 MICH
PPA / play +0.51 #22 −0.04 #59 OU
Success rate 55% #34 33% #50 Even
When MICH has the ball
Advantage: OU defense
MICH offOU defEdge
Points / game 13.0 #116 0.0 #1 OU
Yards / play 5.75 #81 3.54 #30 OU
PPA / play +0.15 #82 −0.42 #10 OU
Success rate 44% #75 38% #72 Even

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
MICH +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 3 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
OU8d
MICH7d
OU +1 day
Tempo
Slow 106 plays
slowavg 135fast

Schedules, links & other games

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