Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Michigan
Closing spread
OU -5.5
✓ MICH W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 27 pts
Model before kickoff
OU 25–21 MICH
✗ OU (63%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMICH -2.5
CloseOU -5.5
Total45.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMICH -2.5
8 → OU
CloseOU -5.5
8 pts toward Oklahoma
Total
Open45.5
▼ 2
Close43.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MICH -2.5 · closed OU -5.5 · moved 8 toward OUmodel OU -1.5
model OU -1.5
Opened 45.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 2 downmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (159 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenMICH -2.5
CloseOU -5.5
Total45.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
OU as a 5.5-point road favorite at MICH. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Oklahoma ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Oklahoma
8 pts (MICH -2.5 → OU -5.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
45.5 → 43.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Oklahoma has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | |
| 7-3 70% | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
OU 1–0 MICH
OU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6 2025 | Michigan 13 @ Oklahoma 24 | OU -3.5 | OU W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
OU+15.2 →+16.6▲ 1.4#15
MICH+14.6 →+12.5▼ 2.1#23
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#33
Offense
◀ OU better#89
#28
Defense
◀ OU better#45
+1.0 #39
Turnovers
◀ OU better−3.0 #133
58 plays #109
Pace
◀ OU faster48 plays #129
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| OU off | MICH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 51.0 #28 | 12.0 #47 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.91 #47 | 3.30 #25 | MICH |
| PPA / play | +0.51 #22 | −0.04 #59 | OU |
| Success rate | 55% #34 | 33% #50 | Even |
| MICH off | OU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 13.0 #116 | 0.0 #1 | OU |
| Yards / play | 5.75 #81 | 3.54 #30 | OU |
| PPA / play | +0.15 #82 | −0.42 #10 | OU |
| Success rate | 44% #75 | 38% #72 | Even |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 3 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
OU8d
MICH7d
OU +1 day
Tempo
Slow 106 plays
slowavg 135fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

