UTEP @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Michigan

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphgusts 15Wet0.2 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UTEP

1-1 · Power #136

final

Final

Michigan

2-0 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -34.5

✓ MICH W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 8–43 MICH

✓ MICH (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -36.5

CloseMICH -34.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMICH -36.5

2 → UTEP

CloseMICH -34.5

2 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MICH -36.5 · closed MICH -34.5 · moved 2 toward UTEPmodel MICH -35.5

model MICH -35.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 33.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 52% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (231 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMICH -36.5

CloseMICH -34.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 34.5-point home favorite against UTEP, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 52–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 41.3 against an average line of 33.7; 54.5 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 7 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB vs AKR 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & total	-33.75	68–0	W	O47.5
Close	TEX vs SHSU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-39.5	55–0	W	O51.5
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	IU vs KENN 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-35.5	56–9	W	O51.5
Close	TA&M vs NMSU 2024 · Week 12 · close	-38.5	38–3	L	U54.5
Loose	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Loose	MISS vs ULM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-36	35–3	L	U60.5
Loose	UGA vs MSST 2024 · Week 7 · loose	-34	41–31	L	O53.5
Loose	MIA vs STAN 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-28.5	42–7	W	O45.5
Loose	MICH vs CMU 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-27.5	63–3	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
MICH LW	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: UTEP away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP UO	1-1	50%	1-1
MICH UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 650 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
MICH	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−16.2▼ 0.3#128

MICH+14.6 →+12.9▼ 1.7#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UTEP

Longer bar = better

MICH

#84

Offense

◀ UTEP better

#119

#100

Defense

MICH better ▶

#27

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ UTEP better

−0.5 #97

55 plays #128

Pace

Even

53 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	UTEP off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #91	11.0 #17	MICH
Yards / play	6.26 #61	3.95 #23	MICH
PPA / play	−0.06 #126	−0.09 #32	MICH
Success rate	46% #56	34% #36	Even

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #133	30.5 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.08 #118	5.10 #70	UTEP
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	+0.23 #124	MICH
Success rate	35% #127	41% #86	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 47 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.5	7.0	10.5	10.5	4.5	15.0
MICH allowed	1.5	1.5	3.0	3.5	4.5	8.0

MICH scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.0	1.5	8.5	0.0	6.5	6.5
UTEP allowed	14.0	4.5	18.5	8.5	3.5	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.