Utah State @ Utah: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Utah

Weather at kickoff69°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Utah State

0-2 · Power #95

final

Final

Utah

2-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -26.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 14–41 UTAH

✓ UTAH (97%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -27.5

CloseUTAH -26.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -27.5

1 → USU

CloseUTAH -26.5

1 pt toward Utah State

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -27.5 · closed UTAH -26.5 · moved 1 toward USUmodel UTAH -29.5

model UTAH -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 51% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (347 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -27.5

CloseUTAH -26.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 26.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 33–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 38.9 against an average line of 27.3; 56.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 6 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IU vs MSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	38–13	L	O49.5
Close	ILL vs WMU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	38–0	W	U50.5
Close	OSU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-28.5	37–9	L	U49.5
Close	IU vs CLT 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-28.5	52–14	W	O50.5
Close	VAN vs GAST 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	70–21	W	O53.5
Close	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Close	IU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	56–6	W	O53.5
Close	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & total	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-28	15–7	L	U60
Loose	ND vs UVA 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-21.5	35–14	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
UTAH WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; UTAH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UU	0-2	0%	0-2
UTAH OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
UTAH	9-1 90%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USU 0–1 UTAH UTAH leads · 1 game since 2023 · UTAH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Utah 38 @ Utah State 21	UTAH -20.5	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.5 →−6.7▼ 0.2#92

UTAH+14.7 →+18.0▲ 3.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USU

Longer bar = better

UTAH

#124

Offense

UTAH better ▶

#63

Defense

UTAH better ▶

#30

−3.5 #138

Turnovers

UTAH better ▶

+1.0 #24

73 plays #24

Pace

◀ USU faster

69 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	USU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #130	12.0 #22	UTAH
Yards / play	4.64 #125	3.87 #18	UTAH
PPA / play	−0.13 #132	+0.01 #57	UTAH
Success rate	38% #110	32% #24	UTAH

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: UTAH offense

	UTAH off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	54.5 #5	22.5 #80	UTAH
Yards / play	7.84 #14	4.36 #41	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.54 #6	+0.03 #66	UTAH
Success rate	58% #8	39% #63	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 47 FBS teams

USU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	3.5	7.0
UTAH allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	3.5	3.5	7.0

UTAH scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	12.0	18.0	30.0	10.5	14.0	24.5
USU allowed	3.0	10.0	13.0	1.5	8.0	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.