Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Cincinnati

Weather at kickoff87°F5 mphgusts 13Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

1-1 · Power #106

final

Final

Cincinnati

2-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

CIN -14.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 21–35 CIN

✓ CIN (85%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -15.5

CloseCIN -14.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -15.5

1 → M-OH

CloseCIN -14.5

1 pt toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -15.5 · closed CIN -14.5 · moved 1 toward M-OHmodel CIN -15

model CIN -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 58% (139 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (347 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -15.5

CloseCIN -14.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 14.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 35–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 18.8 against an average line of 14.9; 55.6 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	UVA vs STAN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	48–20	W	O48.5
Close	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-17	38–14	W	O48
Close	ODU vs LIB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-14.5	21–7	L	U53.5
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	NAVY vs RICE 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread	-14	21–13	L	U45.5
Close	TOL vs MASS 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-17.5	38–23	L	O51
Loose	KSU vs TROY 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-15	42–13	W	O50
Loose	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-13	35–33	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
CIN WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OO	2-0	100%	1-1
CIN UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 717 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CIN	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

M-OH 1–1 CIN Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · CIN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Cincinnati 27 @ Miami (OH) 16	CIN -3.5	CIN W
Sep 16 2023	Miami (OH) 31 @ Cincinnati 24	CIN -14.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−6.3 →−7.3▼ 1.0#98

CIN+1.4 →+4.2▲ 2.8#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

M-OH

Longer bar = better

CIN

#44

Offense

CIN better ▶

#19

#111

Defense

CIN better ▶

#61

−0.5 #96

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+1.5 #16

56 plays #123

Pace

CIN faster ▶

71 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #79	12.5 #29	CIN
Yards / play	6.48 #49	4.84 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.44 #15	+0.02 #60	M-OH
Success rate	51% #33	43% #100	M-OH

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #18	33.0 #123	CIN
Yards / play	7.30 #22	6.95 #131	CIN
PPA / play	+0.45 #13	+0.13 #104	CIN
Success rate	52% #23	41% #84	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 47 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.0	21.0	28.0	1.5	0.0	1.5
CIN allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	4.0	3.5	7.5

CIN scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.0	14.0	19.0	17.5	11.5	29.0
M-OH allowed	10.5	5.0	15.5	14.0	3.5	17.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.