Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Wisconsin

Weather at kickoff64°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

1-2 · Power #128

final

Final

Wisconsin

1-1 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -23.5

✓ WIS W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 10–34 WIS

✓ WIS (95%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWIS -24.5

CloseWIS -23.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWIS -24.5

1 → EMU

CloseWIS -23.5

1 pt toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WIS -24.5 · closed WIS -23.5 · moved 1 toward EMUmodel WIS -21.5

model WIS -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–24.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 53% (91 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (344 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWIS -24.5

CloseWIS -23.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 23.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 54–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27.9 against an average line of 23; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SC vs CCU 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	51–7	W	O50
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21	41–28	L	O55
Close	ARK vs LT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	35–14	L	O48.5
Close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Close	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Close	AUB vs ULM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-24.5	48–14	W	O46
Close	UNC vs CLT 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-21.5	38–20	L	O47.5
Close	MICH vs CMU 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-27.5	63–3	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
WIS LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: EMU away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
WIS OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 363 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
WIS	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−12.8 →−13.6▼ 0.8#120

WIS+3.3 →+3.1▼ 0.2#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

EMU

Longer bar = better

WIS

#120

Offense

WIS better ▶

#100

#89

Defense

Even

#94

+0.7 #41

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

−1.0 #119

63 plays #92

Pace

◀ EMU faster

57 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	EMU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #119	25.0 #90	WIS
Yards / play	4.51 #127	5.30 #81	WIS
PPA / play	−0.02 #120	+0.15 #108	Even
Success rate	38% #113	42% #95	Even

When WIS has the ball

Even matchup

	WIS off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #98	26.3 #97	Even
Yards / play	6.05 #71	5.65 #102	WIS
PPA / play	+0.08 #101	+0.07 #78	EMU
Success rate	35% #129	40% #79	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 38 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	0.0 #37	11.7 #14	11.7 #28	4.7 #22	2.3 #33	7.0 #34
WIS allowed	6.5	3.0	9.5	8.5	7.0	15.5

WIS scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	10.0	6.5	16.5	5.0	3.0	8.0
EMU allowed	2.3 #9	9.0 #23	11.3 #18	7.0 #29	8.0 #28	15.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.