USC @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

USC

3-0 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Rutgers

0-2 · Power #77

final

Closing spread

USC -21

✓ RUTG W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 40–20 RUTG

✓ USC (93%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -24.5

CloseUSC -21

Total57.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -24.5

3.5 → RUTG

CloseUSC -21

3.5 pts toward Rutgers

Total

Open57.5

▲ 2

Close59.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -24.5 · closed USC -21 · moved 3.5 toward RUTGmodel USC -20

model USC -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (66 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -24.5

CloseUSC -21

Total57.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 21-point road favorite at RUTG, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 42–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 59.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 21; 57.8 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Loose	CLEM @ WAKE 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-21	49–14	W	P63
Loose	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Loose	ISU @ ARST 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	24–16	L	U55.5
Loose	ORE @ UCLA 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-23.5	34–13	L	U54
Loose	FSU @ STAN 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-17.5	13–20	L	U55.5
Loose	PSU @ UCLA 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-24.5	37–42	L	O48
Loose	BAY @ OKST 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	45–27	L	O58.5
Loose	UNLV @ USU 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	50–34	L	O67
Loose	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	41–16	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC LWL	1-2	33%	—	1-2
RUTG LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; RUTG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
RUTG OU	1-1	50%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 396 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
RUTG	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USC 2–0 RUTG USC leads · 2 games since 2024 · USC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2024	Rutgers 20 @ USC 42	USC -13.5	USC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+17.6 →+17.3▼ 0.3#13

RUTG+2.3 →−5.0▼ 7.3#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USC

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#21

Offense

◀ USC better

#107

#59

Defense

◀ USC better

#117

−0.7 #109

Turnovers

◀ USC better

−2.5 #137

72 plays #31

Pace

◀ USC faster

66 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #29	32.5 #122	USC
Yards / play	7.16 #27	6.44 #125	USC
PPA / play	+0.36 #23	+0.16 #110	USC
Success rate	59% #5	44% #110	USC

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	RUTG off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #112	18.7 #62	USC
Yards / play	5.57 #93	5.33 #86	Even
PPA / play	−0.08 #127	+0.02 #61	USC
Success rate	41% #95	32% #26	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 47 FBS teams

USC scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	7.0 #19	21.7 #1	28.7 #3	5.3 #23	9.3 #9	14.7 #16
RUTG allowed	10.5	11.5	22.0	1.5	9.0	10.5

RUTG scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	3.5	10.5	14.0
USC allowed	1.0 #5	2.3 #6	3.3 #3	3.3 #15	12.0 #47	15.3 #41

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.