SMU @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff96°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

SMU

2-0 · Power #35

final

Final

Louisville

1-1 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -3

✓ LOU W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 26–29 LOU

✓ LOU (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -1.5

CloseLOU -3

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -1.5

1.5 → LOU

CloseLOU -3

1.5 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open56.5

▲ 1

Close57.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -1.5 · closed LOU -3 · moved 1.5 toward LOUmodel LOU -2

model LOU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (278 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (303 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLOU -1.5

CloseLOU -3

Total56.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 3-point home favorite against SMU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 41–31; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 72 points went over 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 3.8; 58.6 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Very close	TCU vs UCF 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	34–35	L	O61.5
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	VAN vs MIZ 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–10	W	U52.5
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	CIN vs ISU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	38–30	W	O55.5
Close	KU vs CIN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-5.5	34–37	L	O56
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	25–17	W	U60
Close	TCU vs SMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–17	W	U63
Close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–24	P	U54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU PW	1-0-1	100%	0-0-1	—
LOU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: SMU away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU UO	1-1	50%	2-0
LOU OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 543 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	8-2 80%	7-2-1 78%	4-6 40%
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SMU 2–0 LOU SMU leads · 2 games since 2023 · SMU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Louisville 6 @ SMU 38	SMU -3.5	SMU W
Oct 5 2024	SMU 34 @ Louisville 27	LOU -6.5	SMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+9.9 →+12.3▲ 2.4#23

LOU+9.5 →+11.5▲ 2.0#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SMU

Longer bar = better

LOU

#10

Offense

Even

#16

#38

Defense

◀ SMU better

#92

−0.5 #99

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+1.5 #15

62 plays #99

Pace

LOU faster ▶

67 plays #65

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #30	27.0 #99	SMU
Yards / play	9.20 #2	5.29 #80	SMU
PPA / play	+0.55 #5	+0.16 #112	SMU
Success rate	61% #4	40% #76	SMU

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #17	17.0 #52	LOU
Yards / play	8.24 #10	4.35 #39	LOU
PPA / play	+0.44 #14	−0.07 #37	LOU
Success rate	52% #22	32% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 47 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	10.5	19.0	29.5	3.5	8.5	12.0
LOU allowed	1.5	8.5	10.0	8.5	8.5	17.0

LOU scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	10.0	8.5	18.5	16.0	14.0	30.0
SMU allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	3.5	8.5	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.