Houston @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Fri, Sep 18, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff90°F11 mphDryWeather watch ›

Houston

2-0 · Power #21

final

Final

Texas Tech

2-0 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -7.5

✓ HOU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 21–29 TTU

✓ TTU (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -12.5

CloseTTU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -12.5

5 → HOU

CloseTTU -7.5

5 pts toward Houston

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -12.5 · closed TTU -7.5 · moved 5 toward HOUmodel TTU -13

model TTU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (215 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (62 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -12.5

CloseTTU -7.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like TTU as a 7.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 28–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 9 similar games. 54 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 9.

Favorite won

8 of 989%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.7 against an average line of 4.3; 47 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs MISS 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–10	W	U55.5
Close	UTAH vs UCLA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3	14–7	W	U51
Close	SC vs VAN 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–31	L	U48.5
Loose	MISS vs ARK 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	41–35	W	O60.5
Loose	MICH vs WASH 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	24–7	W	U50.5
Loose	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Loose	OSU vs PSU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	20–12	W	U46.5
Loose	ISU vs ARIZ 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-4	39–14	W	O48.5
Loose	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LW	1-1	50%	—	—
TTU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OO	2-0	100%	2-0
TTU UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 705 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
TTU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

HOU 0–2 TTU TTU leads · 2 games since 2023 · TTU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Texas Tech 35 @ Houston 11	TTU -11.5	TTU W
Sep 30 2023	Houston 28 @ Texas Tech 49	TTU -9	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+3.9 →+7.5▲ 3.6#38

TTU+19.6 →+15.1▼ 4.5#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

HOU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#11

Offense

◀ HOU better

#66

#38

Defense

Even

#48

+0.5 #63

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

0.0 #87

68 plays #59

Pace

TTU faster ▶

74 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #4	17.0 #55	HOU
Yards / play	8.26 #8	5.05 #67	HOU
PPA / play	+0.40 #19	+0.02 #59	HOU
Success rate	55% #13	28% #12	Even

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	TTU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #55	13.0 #32	HOU
Yards / play	5.56 #94	4.55 #48	HOU
PPA / play	+0.22 #53	−0.11 #30	HOU
Success rate	46% #60	35% #40	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 14 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	18.5	15.5	34.0	14.0	7.0	21.0
TTU allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	7.0	5.0	12.0

TTU scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	8.0	10.5	18.5
HOU allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	6.0	3.5	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.