Arkansas State @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at TCU

Weather at kickoff94°F11 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arkansas State

1-1 · Power #103

final

Final

TCU

1-1 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -18.5

✓ TCU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ARST 16–35 TCU

✓ TCU (91%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTCU -20.5

CloseTCU -18.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -20.5

2 → ARST

CloseTCU -18.5

2 pts toward Arkansas State

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -20.5 · closed TCU -18.5 · moved 2 toward ARSTmodel TCU -21.5

model TCU -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 52% (115 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (238 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTCU -20.5

CloseTCU -18.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as an 18.5-point home favorite against ARST, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 31–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 30 against an average line of 19.2; 56.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Close	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Close	MEM vs CLT 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-17	33–28	L	O56
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	TULN vs RICE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total	-21.5	24–10	L	U53
Close	ISU vs ARST 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-20.5	52–7	W	O52
Close	GT vs SYR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-17.5	41–16	W	O52.5
Close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & total	-20.5	69–10	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
TCU LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OO	2-0	100%	1-1
TCU UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
TCU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−10.2 →−10.0▲ 0.2#107

TCU+8.0 →+7.0▼ 1.0#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ARST

Longer bar = better

TCU

#40

Offense

Even

#49

#107

Defense

TCU better ▶

#38

+0.5 #49

Turnovers

TCU better ▶

+1.0 #24

58 plays #124

Pace

TCU faster ▶

70 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #40	11.0 #12	TCU
Yards / play	7.11 #26	4.84 #48	ARST
PPA / play	+0.17 #74	−0.01 #43	TCU
Success rate	51% #21	38% #50	ARST

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #51	24.5 #89	TCU
Yards / play	6.84 #33	6.36 #120	TCU
PPA / play	+0.21 #61	+0.21 #118	TCU
Success rate	46% #51	43% #101	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 114 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	1.5	17.5	19.0	12.0	7.0	19.0
TCU allowed	5.0	4.5	9.5	1.5	0.0	1.5

TCU scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	8.5	10.5	19.0	7.0	10.5	17.5
ARST allowed	0.0	14.0	14.0	7.0	3.5	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.