UTSA @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff92°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTSA

2-0 · Power #71

final

Final

Texas

2-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -29.5

✓ UTSA W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 13–42 TEX

✓ TEX (98%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -29.5

CloseTEX -29.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -29.5

no move

CloseTEX -29.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -29.5 · unchangedmodel TEX -28.5

model TEX -28.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 28.5–30.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 54% (79 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTEX -29.5

CloseTEX -29.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 29.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 30–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 34.1 against an average line of 27; 56.5 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	AUB vs USA 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-26.5	31–15	L	U56
Close	FSU vs USM 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-31	66–13	W	O54
Close	USC vs USU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-29.5	48–0	W	U63
Close	OSU vs WKU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-29.5	63–10	W	O64.75
Close	GT vs TEM 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	45–24	L	O52.5
Loose	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Loose	ND vs NCSU 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-23.5	36–7	W	U59.5
Loose	TEX vs WYO 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-31	31–10	L	U48.5
Loose	IU vs UCLA 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	56–6	W	O53.5
Loose	ORE vs MD 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-24	39–18	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
TEX WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA OU	1-1	50%	2-0
TEX OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 48% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%
TEX	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTSA 0–3 TEX TEX leads · 3 games since 2022 · TEX has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	UTSA 7 @ Texas 56	TEX -36.5	TEX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+0.4 →−0.7▼ 1.1#68

TEX+18.4 →+22.7▲ 4.3#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UTSA

Longer bar = better

TEX

#32

Offense

◀ UTSA better

#53

#76

Defense

Even

#71

+2.5 #4

Turnovers

◀ UTSA better

+0.5 #52

66 plays #77

Pace

TEX faster ▶

74 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: UTSA offense

	UTSA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #44	15.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	7.01 #29	5.42 #86	UTSA
PPA / play	+0.28 #40	+0.10 #89	UTSA
Success rate	53% #15	41% #78	UTSA

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #25	21.0 #66	TEX
Yards / play	5.76 #91	5.61 #98	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #59	−0.02 #40	Even
Success rate	49% #36	43% #99	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 114 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	7.0	12.0	19.0	5.0	14.0	19.0
TEX allowed	5.0	8.5	13.5	1.5	0.0	1.5

TEX scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	10.5	15.5	26.0
UTSA allowed	0.0	11.5	11.5	3.0	6.5	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.