Ohio State @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff94°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

1-0 · Power #2

final

Final

Texas

1-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -2.5

✓ OSU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 25–26 TEX

✓ TEX (54%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseTEX -2.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPick’em

2.5 → TEX

CloseTEX -2.5

2.5 pts toward Texas

Total

Open47.5

▲ 3

Close50.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened Pick’em · closed TEX -2.5 · moved 2.5 toward TEXmodel OSU -4

model OSU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (329 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (303 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseTEX -2.5

Total47.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like TEX as a 2.5-point home favorite against OSU, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 24–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 47 points stayed under 50.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 24 against an average line of 3.5; 44 points a game (usually 52.6). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UTAH vs TTU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	10–34	L	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU W	1-0	100%	—	—
TEX W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: OSU away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU O	1-0	100%	1-0
TEX O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
TEX	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

OSU 2–0 TEX OSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · OSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 30 2025	Texas 7 @ Ohio State 14	OSU -1.5	OSU W
Jan 10 2024	Ohio State 28 @ Texas 14	OSU -5.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+27.1 →+27.5▲ 0.4#1

TEX+18.4 →+21.2▲ 2.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

OSU

Longer bar = better

TEX

#13

Offense

◀ OSU better

#35

#15

Defense

◀ OSU better

#73

0.0 #74

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+2.0 #19

72 plays #45

Pace

Even

70 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	56.0 #22	7.0 #29	Even
Yards / play	9.32 #6	4.99 #74	OSU
PPA / play	+0.65 #8	+0.08 #88	OSU
Success rate	61% #16	43% #99	OSU

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	59.0 #16	3.0 #10	Even
Yards / play	7.37 #38	2.75 #13	OSU
PPA / play	+0.45 #33	−0.34 #16	Even
Success rate	50% #51	19% #19	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.