San Diego State @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at UCLA

Weather at kickoff87°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

San Diego State

1-0 · Power #108

final

Final

UCLA

1-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCLA -13.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 19–32 UCLA

✓ UCLA (82%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -8.5

CloseUCLA -13.5

Total48.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCLA -8.5

5 → UCLA

CloseUCLA -13.5

5 pts toward UCLA

Total

Open48.5

▲ 5

Close53.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCLA -8.5 · closed UCLA -13.5 · moved 5 toward UCLAmodel UCLA -10.5

model UCLA -10.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 54% (138 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (194 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCLA -8.5

CloseUCLA -13.5

Total48.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like UCLA as a 13.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UCLA won 28–10; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 38 points stayed under 53.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 12.7; 59 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	RUTG vs OHIO 2025 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-15.5	34–31	L	O52
Loose	USA vs UL 2023 · Week 9 · loose	-11.5	20–33	L	U55
Loose	UTAH vs CIN 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-11	45–14	W	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU L	0-1	0%	—	—
UCLA W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; UCLA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU O	1-0	100%	1-0
UCLA O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 47 in the 4th quarter and got 31. 51% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
UCLA	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SDSU 0–1 UCLA UCLA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UCLA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	UCLA 35 @ San Diego State 10	UCLA -13	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−1.2 →−1.8▼ 0.6#75

UCLA+2.1 →+5.1▲ 3.0#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

SDSU

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#57

Offense

UCLA better ▶

#31

#82

Defense

Even

#70

0.0 #65

Turnovers

UCLA better ▶

+2.0 #25

63 plays #93

Pace

◀ SDSU faster

54 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	53.0 #25	24.0 #101	SDSU
Yards / play	6.25 #68	4.71 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #49	−0.06 #57	Even
Success rate	41% #85	34% #54	UCLA

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #41	20.0 #82	UCLA
Yards / play	8.54 #19	4.57 #61	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.41 #37	+0.05 #81	UCLA
Success rate	57% #28	43% #102	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.