Wake Forest @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Purdue

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Wake Forest

1-0 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-0 · Power #59

final

Closing spread

WAKE -2.5

✓ PUR W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 27–24 PUR

✓ WAKE (58%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -3.5

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -3.5

1 → PUR

CloseWAKE -2.5

1 pt toward Purdue

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -3.5 · closed WAKE -2.5 · moved 1 toward PURmodel WAKE -5

model WAKE -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (250 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (125 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWAKE -3.5

CloseWAKE -2.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 2.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 38–36; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 4; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ASU @ MSST 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.75	20–24	L	U58.5
Close	ORST @ WSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	35–38	L	O58.5
Close	KSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	27–30	L	O48.5
Close	ILL @ DUKE 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	45–19	W	O49.25
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-6	20–33	L	U54
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Loose	GT @ SYR 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	28–31	L	U60.5
Loose	TA&M @ MIA 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-3	33–48	L	O50.5
Loose	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5
Loose	ORST @ SDSU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–0	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE L	0-1	0%	—	0-1
PUR L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: WAKE away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE O	1-0	100%	1-0
PUR O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in OT. Of 717 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
PUR	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+3.0 →+4.2▲ 1.2#53

PUR−1.8 →−2.5▼ 0.7#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

WAKE

Longer bar = better

PUR

#45

Offense

Even

#45

#65

Defense

Even

#66

+1.0 #31

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #42

68 plays #67

Pace

PUR faster ▶

74 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Even matchup

	WAKE off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #53	19.0 #80	WAKE
Yards / play	8.22 #26	6.17 #105	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.55 #20	−0.06 #55	WAKE
Success rate	42% #81	22% #22	PUR

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #42	16.0 #69	PUR
Yards / play	7.07 #45	4.42 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.44 #35	−0.12 #46	Even
Success rate	49% #56	41% #88	PUR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.