Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Army · Conference game
Closing spread
ARMY -3
✓ USF W
Total
45.5
▲ Over · 52 pts
Model before kickoff
USF 25–26 ARMY
✗ ARMY (52%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenARMY -1.5
CloseARMY -3
Total52.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARMY -1.5
1.5 → ARMY
CloseARMY -3
1.5 pts toward Army
Total
Open52.5
▼ 7
Close45.5
Down 7 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARMY -1.5 · closed ARMY -3 · moved 1.5 toward ARMYmodel USF -9.5
model USF -9.5
Opened 52.5 · closed 45.5 · moved 7 downmodel 50.5
model 50.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 59%, covered 51% (272 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (291 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenARMY -1.5
CloseARMY -3
Total52.5 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
ARMY as a 3-point home favorite against USF. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Army ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Army
1.5 pts (ARMY -1.5 → ARMY -3). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 7
52.5 → 45.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
South Florida has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 472 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 USF | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| ARMY | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
USF+8.1 →+4.3▼ 3.8#52
ARMY−10.8 →−6.6▲ 4.2#89
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
USFLonger bar = better
ARMY#106
Offense
ARMY better ▶#11
#59
Defense
ARMY better ▶#30
+3.0 #9
Turnovers
◀ USF better0.0 #81
56 plays #116
Pace
ARMY faster ▶70 plays #60
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When USF has the ball| USF off | ARMY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 19.0 #103 | 3.0 #16 | ARMY |
| Yards / play | 3.71 #129 | 3.11 #20 | ARMY |
| PPA / play | −0.06 #117 | −0.14 #42 | ARMY |
| Success rate | 43% #76 | 30% #41 | ARMY |
When ARMY has the ball| ARMY off | USF def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 59.0 #18 | 9.0 #37 | Even |
| Yards / play | 9.26 #8 | 5.08 #75 | ARMY |
| PPA / play | +0.78 #5 | −0.12 #47 | ARMY |
| Success rate | 62% #14 | 38% #75 | ARMY |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ARMY +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
73° · 5 mph
gusts 9 mph · at kickoff
Rest
USF7d
ARMY7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 126 plays
slowavg 135fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
South Florida← vs FIU · vs DSU →
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APP @ 
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ULM @ 
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TLSA @ 
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USA @ 
TULN
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