App State @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at East Carolina

Weather at kickoff85°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

App State

1-0 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

0-1 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

ECU -6.5

✓ APP W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 24–31 ECU

✗ ECU (70%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenECU -11.5

CloseECU -6.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -11.5

5 → APP

CloseECU -6.5

5 pts toward App State

Total

Open56.5

▼ 1

Close55.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -11.5 · closed ECU -6.5 · moved 5 toward APPmodel ECU -11

model ECU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (243 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (101 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenECU -11.5

CloseECU -6.5

Total56.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like ECU as a 6.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: APP won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 51 points stayed under 55.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 7.3; 47 points a game (usually 52.9). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SYR vs CONN 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.25	27–20	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP W	1-0	100%	—	—
ECU L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP O	1-0	100%	1-0
ECU O	1-0	100%	0-1

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ECU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

APP 2–0 ECU APP leads · 2 games since 2023 · APP has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	App State 21 @ East Carolina 19	ECU -0.5	APP W
Sep 16 2023	East Carolina 28 @ App State 43	APP -7.5	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−10.7 →−8.7▲ 2.0#100

ECU+2.1 →−1.1▼ 3.2#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

APP

Longer bar = better

ECU

#22

Offense

◀ APP better

#128

#24

Defense

◀ APP better

#120

+1.0 #47

Turnovers

◀ APP better

0.0 #70

72 plays #46

Pace

◀ APP faster

41 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #23	48.0 #126	APP
Yards / play	8.99 #12	6.01 #103	APP
PPA / play	+0.50 #24	+0.36 #122	APP
Success rate	56% #30	54% #129	APP

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: APP defense

	ECU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	10.0 #123	3.0 #12	APP
Yards / play	3.95 #127	4.17 #50	APP
PPA / play	−0.17 #129	−0.34 #14	APP
Success rate	24% #132	21% #21	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.