Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Georgia
Closing spread
UGA -40.5
✓ UGA W
Total
55.5
▲ Over · 90 pts
Model before kickoff
WKU 7–47 UGA
✓ UGA (100%) won
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUGA -35.5
CloseUGA -40.5
Total52.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUGA -35.5
5 → UGA
CloseUGA -40.5
5 pts toward Georgia
Total
Open52.5
▲ 3
Close55.5
Up 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UGA -35.5 · closed UGA -40.5 · moved 5 toward UGAmodel UGA -41
model UGA -41
Opened 52.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 3 upmodel 54
model 54
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 38.5–42.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 52% (70 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 48% (184 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenUGA -35.5
CloseUGA -40.5
Total52.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
UGA as a 40.5-point home favorite against WKU. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Georgia ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Georgia
5 pts (UGA -35.5 → UGA -40.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 3
52.5 → 55.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Western Kentucky has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 595 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 WKU | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
| UGA | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
WKU−7.3 →−12.2▼ 4.9#118
UGA+22.1 →+22.1–#7
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
WKULonger bar = better
UGA#106
Offense
UGA better ▶#5
#129
Defense
UGA better ▶#20
−1.0 #109
Turnovers
UGA better ▶0.0 #77
82 plays #12
Pace
◀ WKU faster60 plays #105
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When WKU has the ball| WKU off | UGA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 14.0 #114 | 3.0 #14 | UGA |
| Yards / play | 4.48 #115 | 1.88 #4 | UGA |
| PPA / play | −0.04 #110 | −0.15 #39 | UGA |
| Success rate | 41% #86 | 23% #23 | UGA |
When UGA has the ball| UGA off | WKU def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 63.0 #9 | 49.0 #128 | UGA |
| Yards / play | 11.00 #1 | 8.38 #132 | UGA |
| PPA / play | +0.67 #7 | +0.56 #132 | UGA |
| Success rate | 69% #4 | 52% #125 | UGA |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
UGA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 8 mph
gusts 15 mph · at kickoff
Rest
WKU7d
UGA7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 142 plays
slowavg 135fast
Quarterback
WKU backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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