Buffalo @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Florida International

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

1-0 · Power #125

final

Final

Florida International

0-1 · Power #105

▲ winner

Closing spread

FIU -8.5

✓ FIU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 18–27 FIU

✓ FIU (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFIU -10.5

CloseFIU -8.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -10.5

2 → BUFF

CloseFIU -8.5

2 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open51.5

▼ 4

Close47.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FIU -10.5 · closed FIU -8.5 · moved 2 toward BUFFmodel FIU -8

model FIU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 51% (171 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (224 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFIU -10.5

CloseFIU -8.5

Total51.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as an 8.5-point home favorite against BUFF, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FIU won 33–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.3 against an average line of 8.2; 53.9 points a game (usually 53). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TROY vs UL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-7	35–23	W	O47.5
Close	CONN vs FIU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	17–24	L	U43.5
Close	APP vs CCU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	37–45	L	O48
Close	OHIO vs BGSU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	35–20	W	O49.5
Close	UTSA vs FAU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	38–24	W	O52.5
Close	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Close	UTSA vs RICE 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	61–13	W	O48.5
Close	CONN vs FIU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	51–10	W	O52
Close	UCLA vs FRES 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	20–13	L	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF L	0-1	0%	—	—
FIU W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: BUFF away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF U	0-1	0%	1-0
FIU U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 589 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
FIU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−12.9 →−11.9▲ 1.0#116

FIU−10.0 →−6.7▲ 3.3#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BUFF

Longer bar = better

FIU

#98

Offense

◀ BUFF better

#113

#53

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#68

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ BUFF better

−3.0 #132

80 plays #16

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

75 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	BUFF off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #95	19.0 #79	Even
Yards / play	4.25 #121	3.71 #35	FIU
PPA / play	+0.15 #80	−0.06 #56	FIU
Success rate	40% #94	43% #101	Even

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	FIU off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	9.0 #128	17.0 #75	BUFF
Yards / play	5.08 #101	3.83 #40	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.12 #123	−0.06 #58	BUFF
Success rate	38% #101	29% #38	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.