Sat, Sep 12, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Kennesaw State
Closing spread
KENN -7.5
✓ GAST W
Total
55.5
▼ Under · 48 pts
Model before kickoff
GAST 24–31 KENN
✗ KENN (70%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenKENN -9.5
CloseKENN -7.5
Total50.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKENN -9.5
2 → GAST
CloseKENN -7.5
2 pts toward Georgia State
Total
Open50.5
▲ 5
Close55.5
Up 5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KENN -9.5 · closed KENN -7.5 · moved 2 toward GASTmodel KENN -7
model KENN -7
Opened 50.5 · closed 55.5 · moved 5 upmodel 55.5 matches the line
model 55.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (213 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (225 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenKENN -9.5
CloseKENN -7.5
Total50.5 → 55.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
KENN as a 7.5-point home favorite against GAST. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Georgia State ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Georgia State
2 pts (KENN -9.5 → KENN -7.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 5
50.5 → 55.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Georgia State has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 GAST | 1-9 10% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| KENN | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
GAST−14.5 →−12.1▲ 2.4#117
KENN−10.4 →−8.1▲ 2.3#94
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
GASTLonger bar = better
KENN#18
Offense
◀ GAST better#40
#37
Defense
KENN better ▶#11
0.0 #68
Turnovers
◀ GAST better0.0 #88
71 plays #52
Pace
KENN faster ▶81 plays #14
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When GAST has the ball| GAST off | KENN def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 59.0 #14 | 0.0 #9 | Even |
| Yards / play | 7.93 #29 | 3.14 #22 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.63 #11 | −0.42 #9 | Even |
| Success rate | 61% #17 | 12% #4 | Even |
When KENN has the ball| KENN off | GAST def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 47.0 #36 | 10.0 #38 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.46 #60 | 3.94 #44 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.39 #39 | −0.14 #41 | Even |
| Success rate | 59% #23 | 24% #26 | Even |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
KENN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
84° · 3 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
GAST8d
KENN9d
KENN +1 day
Tempo
Fast 152 plays
slowavg 135fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Georgia State← vs NCAT · @ UCF →Kennesaw State← vs WES · @ TENN →
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VT
APP @ 
ECU
WKU @ 
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ULM @ 
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DEL @ 
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BUFF @ 
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JXST @ 
OHIO
TLSA @ 
SHSU
USA @ 
TULN
MTSU @ 
MRSH