Georgia State @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UCF

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

2-0 · Power #91

final

Final

UCF

1-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

UCF -17.5

✓ GAST W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 16–34 UCF

✓ UCF (90%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCF -21

CloseUCF -17.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -21

3.5 → GAST

CloseUCF -17.5

3.5 pts toward Georgia State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 1

Close50.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -21 · closed UCF -17.5 · moved 3.5 toward GASTmodel UCF -18

model UCF -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (140 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUCF -21

CloseUCF -17.5

Total49.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like UCF as a 17.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 44–30; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 74 points went over 50.5, as in 3 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 16.6; 50.8 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-18	30–27	L	O52
Loose	ALA vs WIS 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-18.5	38–14	W	O45.5
Loose	OU vs TULN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-13.5	34–19	W	O49
Loose	FSU vs BC 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & spread	-16.5	13–28	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
UCF WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OU	1-1	50%	2-0
UCF OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 727 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UCF	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−14.5 →−9.8▲ 4.7#105

UCF+0.7 →+4.2▲ 3.5#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

GAST

Longer bar = better

UCF

#20

Offense

◀ GAST better

#76

#46

Defense

UCF better ▶

#16

−0.5 #93

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+0.5 #44

71 plays #37

Pace

◀ GAST faster

57 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #27	9.0 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.42 #21	3.76 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #18	−0.13 #24	Even
Success rate	54% #15	29% #13	Even

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: GAST defense

	UCF off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #38	13.5 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.78 #40	4.96 #64	UCF
PPA / play	−0.04 #123	−0.03 #48	GAST
Success rate	39% #102	34% #39	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	10.0	18.0	28.0	15.5	1.5	17.0
UCF allowed	1.5	4.5	6.0	0.0	3.0	3.0

UCF scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	10.5	8.5	19.0	14.0	7.0	21.0
GAST allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	4.0	4.5	8.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.