TCU @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

TCU

2-1 · Power #36

final

Final

UCF

2-1 · Power #55

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -3.5

✓ UCF W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

TCU 25–22 UCF

✗ TCU (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTCU -3

CloseTCU -3.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -3

0.5 → TCU

CloseTCU -3.5

0.5 pts toward TCU

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -3 · closed TCU -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward TCUmodel TCU -1.5

model TCU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (244 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 61% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTCU -3

CloseTCU -3.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 3.5-point road favorite at UCF, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 21–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 3.5; 57.3 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5
Very close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Very close	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Very close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Very close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Very close	IOWA @ RUTG 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	38–28	W	O46.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	34–27	W	O53.5
Close	NEB @ MD 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–31	L	O47.5
Close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–43	L	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LWW	2-1	67%	—	2-1
UCF WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: TCU away, as favorite; UCF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU UOU	1-2	33%	2-1
UCF OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
UCF	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TCU 0–2 UCF UCF leads · 2 games since 2024 · UCF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	UCF 35 @ TCU 34	TCU -2.5	UCF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU+8.0 →+7.2▼ 0.8#39

UCF+0.7 →+2.9▲ 2.2#55

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TCU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#47

Offense

◀ TCU better

#65

#32

Defense

Even

#30

+0.3 #56

Turnovers

UCF better ▶

+1.0 #23

69 plays #46

Pace

◀ TCU faster

57 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #53	16.0 #30	UCF
Yards / play	6.85 #27	4.54 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #57	−0.05 #30	UCF
Success rate	46% #52	34% #26	UCF

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	UCF off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	41.3 #25	9.7 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.80 #31	4.84 #52	UCF
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	−0.08 #23	TCU
Success rate	41% #104	37% #44	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	8.0 #49	9.3 #72	17.3 #66	7.0 #56	10.3 #22	17.3 #31
UCF allowed	3.3 #49	8.7 #88	12.0 #78	1.0 #10	3.0 #20	4.0 #11

UCF scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	12.7 #11	6.7 #100	19.3 #46	14.0 #3	8.0 #52	22.0 #12
TCU allowed	3.3 #49	5.3 #47	8.7 #46	1.0 #10	0.0 #1	1.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.