Utah @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F13 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Utah

3-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Iowa State

2-1 · Power #50

final

Closing spread

UTAH -7.5

✓ UTAH W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 28–20 ISU

✓ UTAH (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -11.5

CloseUTAH -7.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -11.5

4 → ISU

CloseUTAH -7.5

4 pts toward Iowa State

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -11.5 · closed UTAH -7.5 · moved 4 toward ISUmodel UTAH -9.5

model UTAH -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 53% (157 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (72 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUTAH -11.5

CloseUTAH -7.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 7.5-point road favorite at ISU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTAH won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 7.4; 55.9 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA @ UK 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	45–17	W	O47.5
Loose	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-10	39–38	L	O54
Loose	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Loose	BYU @ ECU 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	U49.5
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Loose	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Loose	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Loose	MEM @ NAVY 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & situation	-8.5	44–56	L	O47
Loose	MISS @ UK 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.75	30–23	L	O51.5
Loose	ORE @ IOWA 2025 · Week 11 · loose	-4.5	18–16	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WWW	3-0	100%	—	3-0
ISU LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; ISU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OUU	1-2	33%	3-0
ISU UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 563 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	9-1 90%	7-2-1 78%	6-4 60%
ISU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTAH 0–1 ISU ISU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ISU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Iowa State 31 @ Utah 28	ISU -3.5	UTAH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+14.7 →+17.4▲ 2.7#11

ISU+6.2 →+6.1▼ 0.1#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UTAH

Longer bar = better

ISU

#11

Offense

◀ UTAH better

#66

#17

Defense

Even

#14

+0.7 #35

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #28

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

55 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	47.3 #9	11.0 #14	Even
Yards / play	7.36 #15	3.81 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.45 #7	−0.14 #11	Even
Success rate	53% #11	32% #20	Even

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: UTAH defense

	ISU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	35.3 #50	8.0 #6	UTAH
Yards / play	6.45 #51	3.76 #9	UTAH
PPA / play	+0.24 #48	−0.01 #40	Even
Success rate	39% #114	30% #11	UTAH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	13.3 #10	15.3 #15	28.7 #5	9.3 #27	9.3 #31	18.7 #24
ISU allowed	2.3 #23	5.7 #50	8.0 #37	0.0 #1	3.0 #20	3.0 #6

ISU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	11.7 #16	12.7 #36	24.3 #22	5.3 #86	5.7 #90	11.0 #96
UTAH allowed	1.0 #10	2.3 #16	3.3 #4	2.3 #23	2.3 #10	4.7 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.