West Virginia @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F14 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

West Virginia

3-1 · Power #73

final

Final

Iowa State

2-2 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -3

Push

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 23–27 ISU

✓ ISU (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenISU -1.5

CloseISU -3

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -1.5

1.5 → ISU

CloseISU -3

1.5 pts toward Iowa State

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -1.5 · closed ISU -3 · moved 1.5 toward ISUmodel ISU -10

model ISU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 52% (290 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 53% (20 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenISU -1.5

CloseISU -3

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 3-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ISU won 45–42; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 4.1; 53.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN vs UTSA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	29–16	W	U52.5
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	ARIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–20	L	U56.5
Very close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	ECU vs ARMY 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	28–6	W	U52.5
Very close	COLO vs CIN 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	34–23	W	P57
Very close	BYU vs KU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	13–17	L	U55.5
Very close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Very close	UL vs MRSH 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5	3–31	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LWWL	2-2	50%	—	1-0
ISU LWWL	2-2	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1
ISU UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q3. Of 707 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ISU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WVU 6–7 ISU ISU leads · 13 games since 2012 · ISU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Iowa State 28 @ West Virginia 16	ISU -3	ISU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU−1.3 →−0.2▲ 1.1#69

ISU+6.2 →+5.9▼ 0.3#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WVU

Longer bar = better

ISU

#55

Offense

◀ WVU better

#88

#107

Defense

ISU better ▶

#38

+0.5 #50

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #58

74 plays #12

Pace

◀ WVU faster

60 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Even matchup

	WVU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #40	16.0 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #59	4.58 #31	ISU
PPA / play	+0.19 #62	−0.01 #39	ISU
Success rate	45% #60	38% #51	Even

When ISU has the ball

Even matchup

	ISU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #70	24.8 #85	Even
Yards / play	5.80 #81	6.27 #122	ISU
PPA / play	+0.12 #83	+0.18 #107	ISU
Success rate	38% #119	45% #114	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	12.3 #10	9.5 #70	21.8 #31	8.5 #35	6.0 #92	14.5 #63
ISU allowed	5.3 #86	6.8 #57	12.0 #73	0.0 #1	4.0 #28	4.0 #7

ISU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	8.8 #39	10.3 #62	19.0 #45	5.8 #79	6.0 #92	11.8 #94
WVU allowed	4.3 #64	2.5 #12	6.8 #19	7.3 #112	10.8 #130	18.0 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.