Middle Tennessee @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Kansas

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

2-2 · Power #126

final

Final

Kansas

1-2 · Power #46

▲ winner

Closing spread

KU -21.5

✓ KU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 15–37 KU

✓ KU (94%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKU -21.5

CloseKU -21.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKU -21.5

no move

CloseKU -21.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KU -21.5 · unchangedmodel KU -23.5

model KU -23.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKU -21.5

CloseKU -21.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KU as a 21.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 55–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.5 against an average line of 20.6; 50.9 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK vs LT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-23.5	35–14	L	O48.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	AUB vs ULM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	48–14	W	O46
Close	MINN vs EMU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	25–6	L	U48
Close	UK vs USA 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-20.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Close	MEM vs TLSA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-21	45–7	W	U54.5
Close	ISU vs ARST 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	52–7	W	O52
Close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Close	TULN vs RICE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	24–10	L	U53
Close	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-17	26–21	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WWWL	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1
KU WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; KU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUUU	0-4	0%	2-2
KU UOU	1-2	33%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 787 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	4-6 40%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%
KU	3-7 30%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−15.1 →−15.9▼ 0.8#126

KU+3.1 →+3.2▲ 0.1#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MTSU

Longer bar = better

#79

Offense

Even

#82

#87

Defense

KU better ▶

#28

+1.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ MTSU better

−1.7 #136

61 plays #117

Pace

KU faster ▶

72 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: KU defense

	MTSU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #93	22.7 #68	KU
Yards / play	5.77 #83	4.44 #22	KU
PPA / play	+0.20 #58	−0.06 #19	KU
Success rate	43% #81	31% #4	KU

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #79	21.3 #57	MTSU
Yards / play	5.90 #76	5.97 #108	KU
PPA / play	+0.14 #77	+0.09 #78	Even
Success rate	41% #95	44% #106	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	7.0 #57	5.8 #113	12.8 #98	5.8 #79	7.5 #68	13.3 #78
KU allowed	1.0 #7	7.0 #66	8.0 #28	7.0 #101	7.7 #109	14.7 #113

KU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	2.0 #128	15.0 #13	17.0 #69	4.7 #98	8.0 #55	12.7 #83
MTSU allowed	4.3 #64	6.0 #47	10.3 #49	6.0 #88	5.0 #50	11.0 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.