Delaware @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Tue, Oct 13, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Delaware

2-3 · Power #113

final

Final

Middle Tennessee

2-3 · Power #126

▲ winner

Closing spread

DEL -1.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

DEL 27–26 MTSU

✗ DEL (55%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEL -1.5

CloseDEL -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:31

Delaware at Middle Tennessee: game recap

Made automatically from this game’s final numbers (Oct 19, 1:28 PM ET).

Transcript

Middle Tennessee beat Delaware, 33 to 30. One score decided it. Delaware struck first, a 9-play, 59-yard field goal drive. Middle Tennessee went up 26 to 23 in the third quarter. Delaware went up 30 to 26 in the fourth quarter. The lead changed hands 7 times. Middle Tennessee’s touchdown with 3:06 left made it 33 to 30, the winning score. Third quarter, 2:10 left. Gagliano finds Clifton for an 18-yard touchdown. That lifted Middle Tennessee’s win probability by 24 points. Fourth quarter, 9:57 left. Bell finds Roberts for a 23-yard touchdown. That lifted Delaware’s win probability by 43 points. Fourth quarter, 3:06 left. Gagliano finds Clifton for a 14-yard touchdown. That lifted Middle Tennessee’s win probability by 55 points. The yardage was nearly even, 391 to 396. Delaware won the turnover battle, 1 to 2. Before kickoff, our model had Delaware winning 27 to 26. That pick missed. It projected 53 total points; they scored 63. Delaware was favored by 1.5, and Middle Tennessee covered by 4.5. With 63 points, the game went over the total of 49.5. In our power ratings, Delaware slips from 115th to 117th, and Middle Tennessee climbs from 124th to 123rd. Full recap at sportsanalysis.info

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDEL -1.5

no move

CloseDEL -1.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DEL -1.5 · unchangedmodel DEL -3

model DEL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 50% (189 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDEL -1.5

CloseDEL -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEL as a 1.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 33–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 2.5; 49.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	LIB @ UTEP 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	19–8	W	U46.5
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Very close	MOST @ NMSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–17	W	U51.5
Very close	OHIO @ CMU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–25	L	O50.5
Very close	SJSU @ WYO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	28–35	L	O49.5
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	EMU @ BALL 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	24–9	W	U48.5
Very close	KENN @ FIU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	45–26	W	O48.5
Very close	JXST @ KENN 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	27–26	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEL WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-0
MTSU WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: DEL away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEL UOUUU	1-4	20%	2-3
MTSU UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 750 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MTSU	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEL 1–0 MTSU DEL leads · 1 game since 2023 · DEL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2025	Middle Tennessee 28 @ Delaware 31	DEL -9.5	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEL−14.3 →−12.1▲ 2.2#114

MTSU−15.1 →−18.1▼ 3.0#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

DEL

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#101

Offense

Even

#103

#88

Defense

◀ DEL better

#118

−0.2 #89

Turnovers

MTSU better ▶

+1.0 #18

64 plays #92

Pace

◀ DEL faster

57 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEL has the ball

Even matchup

	DEL off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #112	28.0 #111	Even
Yards / play	5.60 #89	6.63 #129	DEL
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	+0.16 #105	Even
Success rate	40% #101	48% #128	DEL

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #116	25.6 #87	DEL
Yards / play	5.40 #107	5.50 #78	DEL
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	+0.13 #94	Even
Success rate	40% #107	43% #91	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

DEL scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	1.4 #136	9.8 #57	11.2 #106	2.8 #126	7.4 #64	10.2 #102
MTSU allowed	4.0 #52	8.2 #86	12.2 #75	7.6 #112	8.2 #113	15.8 #123

MTSU scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.6 #81	4.6 #126	10.2 #113	4.6 #104	6.0 #96	10.6 #97
DEL allowed	6.8 #108	8.4 #90	15.2 #105	7.6 #112	2.8 #7	10.4 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.