Colorado State @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Thu, Oct 15, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

2-3 · Power #110

final

Final

Texas State

2-3 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -15.5

✓ TXST W

Total

69.5

▲ Over · 93 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 27–42 TXST

✓ TXST (86%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -12.5

CloseTXST -15.5

Total67.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:23

Colorado State at Texas State: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 1:45 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -12.5

3 → TXST

CloseTXST -15.5

3 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open67.5

▲ 2

Close69.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -12.5 · closed TXST -15.5 · moved 3 toward TXSTmodel TXST -14

model TXST -14

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 49% (132 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (338 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTXST -12.5

CloseTXST -15.5

Total67.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 15.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 66–27; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 93 points went over 69.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 14.1; 63.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MEM vs USF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-13.5	59–50	L	O68.5
Close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Close	ODU vs APP 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	24–21	L	U62.5
Close	NAVY vs FAU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-14.5	42–32	L	O63.5
Close	TXST vs ARST 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-13.5	41–9	W	U66
Close	MEM vs UAB 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-16.5	53–18	W	O62
Close	APP vs GASO 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	55–27	W	O63
Close	MRSH vs GASO 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-10.5	19–24	L	U62.5
Close	TXST vs ULM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-18.5	21–20	L	U64.5
Close	USF vs UTSA 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-14	55–23	W	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-0	1-2
TXST LLWWL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU OOOOO	5-0	100%	2-3
TXST OUOOO	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q3. Of 45 earlier overs in games with totals 65.5–73.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	7-3 70%
TXST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−10.5 →−9.3▲ 1.2#105

TXST−1.3 →+0.6▲ 1.9#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CSU

Longer bar = better

TXST

#30

Offense

Even

#26

#135

Defense

TXST better ▶

#111

+1.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ CSU better

−0.8 #125

70 plays #37

Pace

TXST faster ▶

78 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: CSU offense

	CSU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #27	33.2 #127	CSU
Yards / play	6.72 #23	5.70 #95	CSU
PPA / play	+0.28 #22	+0.16 #106	CSU
Success rate	46% #48	45% #116	CSU

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #42	38.6 #133	TXST
Yards / play	6.78 #22	7.35 #138	TXST
PPA / play	+0.28 #25	+0.28 #131	TXST
Success rate	50% #16	53% #138	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	10.4 #18	10.4 #45	20.8 #25	6.0 #74	10.6 #11	16.6 #29
TXST allowed	7.6 #121	7.6 #76	15.2 #107	10.4 #136	7.6 #104	18.0 #128

TXST scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	11.8 #7	10.4 #45	22.2 #17	2.6 #130	10.0 #18	12.6 #81
CSU allowed	13.2 #138	12.4 #129	25.6 #137	5.6 #85	7.4 #101	13.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.